India's Growing Presence

India's rise as a global power has been impossible to ignore, but its position in the world might seem unclear. So what accounts for this independent stance? We'll be exploring these questions.

Moderator
Yamamoto Miki

NHK WORLD-JAPAN

Panelists
Happymon Jacob

Associate Professor of Diplomacy and Disarmament Studies, The School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University

Karthik Nachiappan
Research Fellow, The Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore

Lisa Curtis
Director, The Indo-Pacific Security Program, Center for a New American Security

Hirose Hiromi
Professor, Kindai University, and journalist

Transcript

00:07

Today, there are many ongoing conflicts and the world is seriously divided.

00:14

Amid this situation, India is enhancing its presence.

00:18

While the US, China and other major countries are losing their former influence, India is exerting multipolarism.

00:27

And from an economic standpoint,

00:29

India is expected to surpass Germany and Japan to become the world's third largest GDP by 2027.

00:38

The population is the largest in the world
and the average age is below 30 years old.

00:45

This is a proud era for India.

00:52

It's expected to have the potential for continued economic growth in the long term.

00:59

We will discuss India's role in the world and its potential.

01:07

Welcome to "GLOBAL AGENDA." I'm Yamamoto Miki.

01:10

India's rise as a global power has been impossible to ignore, but at the same time,

01:16

its position in the international community might seem a bit unclear.

01:21

That's because India has not aligned itself with either the East or the West.

01:26

So what accounts for this independent stance?

01:29

What's driving its economy and what challenges does it face?

01:33

And where is it headed over the next decade?

01:36

I'll be exploring these questions with our four distinguished guests today.

01:41

First, from India, Professor Happymon Jacob of Jawaharlal Nehru University.

01:46

He's an expert on India's foreign policy and the New Delhi-based think tank.

01:51

So thank you for joining us, professor.

01:53

How would you describe India today in a word or two?

01:57

"Bridge power." I would define India to be a bridge power, just as the government calls itself an emerging bridge power,

02:04

across many global divides that we are witnessing today.

02:08

Now, joining us from Singapore is Dr. Karthik Nachiappan of the National University of Singapore.

02:14

So, Dr. Nachiappan, you were born in India, acquired citizenship in Canada, and now based in Singapore,

02:21

meaning you're kind of in a position to watch India a bit more objectively, if you will.

02:27

How would you sketch out India today in a word or two?

02:30

The one word I would use is "confidence."

02:33

India is in a sweet spot globally.

02:35

Economically, its performance has been impressive, if not stellar.

02:40

And this economic heft is giving India lots of diplomatic space to work with.

02:46

OK. Confidence.

02:48

And next from the United States is Lisa Curtis.

02:52

She's director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security.

02:57

So, Ms. Curtis, you've been working with India and the US government for decades.

03:03

How would you describe India in a word or two?

03:07

I would describe India as an emergent power.

03:10

I think the trend lines are very positive on the economic, political, military front,

03:15

but we also see challenges that India must overcome in order to reach this global-power status.

03:26

And from Japan is Professor Hirose Hiromi, a journalist and professor at Kindai University.

03:33

He reports on India's politics, economy, and diplomacy, including its relationship with Japan.

03:39

During his career at NHK, he served as the New Delhi Bureau chief.

03:44

How would you characterize India today in a word or two?

03:48

One word is "Bharat."

03:49

Bharat is the Hindi name for the country while India written in the alphabet, I feel, is assigned by the British.

03:56

At the G20 Summit last year, India used this word, Bharat, to name... the country.

04:03

And it's a good example.

04:05

India has begun to express the identity in the international society and in the country.

04:13

Well, thank you all very much for the important keywords that perfectly set the tone for today's discussion.

04:20

So, in our first segment, we will look at India's multidirectional foreign policy

04:26

and its impact on the international community.

04:36

Led by its first prime minister Nehru,

04:38

independent India became a "non-aligned" country and has been committed to multipolar participation ever since.

04:47

In May 2023, it held a meeting of foreign ministers of the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization in the Indian city of Goa.

04:56

Prime Minister Modi participated in the BRICS summit in South Africa in August.

05:01

These are frameworks that include China and Russia.

05:06

On the other hand, Modi visited the White House in June.

05:11

He stressed that the Indo-American relationship was closer than ever before.

05:16

India and the US together form QUAD, which also includes Japan and Australia.

05:24

And in September, India hosted the G20 summit in New Delhi.

05:29

It marked its presence with a joint statement that took into account

05:32

both Russia and the West regarding the invasion of Ukraine.

05:37

India is now focusing on the countries of the Global South.

05:42

As India begins as G20 president this year,

05:47

it is natural that our aim is
to amplify the voice of the Global South.

05:57

So, Professor Jacob, why is India taking this multidirectional diplomatic approach

06:03

and why is that important for the country?

06:07

The first one, of course, is the immense growth in the gross material capability of the country.

06:12

As you said, the country is going to be the third largest economy in the world.

06:17

And secondly, I think there is also a feeling in India today

06:21

that there is a dysfunctional global governance system that we have.

06:25

And I think New Delhi looks at this chaos and says,

06:28

"This is the time for India to assert itself at the global stage."

06:31

But I think it also has very many benefits as far as India is concerned.

06:36

For a country of India's size, with the challenges and the opportunities that India faces from the international system,

06:42

I think it is impossible for this country to have just one partner or one coalition, as it were.

06:48

I think it requires multiple partnerships.

06:50

It requires multiple groupings in order to foster its own economic growth and also to, sort of,

06:57

take advantage from the international system that it perceives as more chaotic and dysfunctional today.

07:03

Professor Hirose, you've created this chart that depicts India's diplomatic landscape.

07:11

- Could you walk us through it?
- Yes.

07:13

This chart divides India's diplomatic relations into two groups:

07:19

the ocean group on the left and the land group on the right.

07:22

Ocean group is about the Indo-Pacific and consists of the democratic countries such as Japan and the US,

07:32

and they're connected by the ideals such as observance of the law, human rights, and democracy.

07:39

On the other hand, the land group is about Eurasia, consists of authoritarian countries like China and Russia.

07:48

This bloc is more pragmatic,

07:52

meaning they are connected by the realism and practical interests such as resources and trade.

08:01

India, at the center of this chart, belongs at the same time both of the groups,

08:10

and it holds a casting vote to form the majority to decide the direction the world is heading.

08:18

And this advantageous position allows India to hold hands with different partners they like when necessary.

08:28

I think the chart really can explain India's desire for autonomy and freedom of action to be able

08:34

to navigate between different powers and regions to advance its core interests.

08:39

That said, I think it's increasingly becoming clear that China appears to play a more central role in Indian foreign policy,

08:47

largely driven by the need to reduce the power imbalance between Beijing and Delhi.

08:52

And it looks like the Indo-Pacific is a space where this competition

08:55

will take place in terms of security, trade, economics, and technology,

09:00

where India is a critical player because of its size and clout.

09:04

Now there's been a significant shift in Sino-Indian relations since 2020, where there was a border crisis.

09:12

And combined with that is this growing convergence that India has with

09:16

powers like the United States, Japan, and Australia,

09:20

where they're all thinking about how to best protect themselves

09:23

from China's increasingly unpredictable and provocative behavior in Asia.

09:29

Now, moreover, if you look around the world and the emerging economies,

09:34

there is little doubt that India possibly holds the best chance to resist and balance China and Asia.

09:40

And that's why major powers in the world over are keen to invest in India.

09:45

They're keen to bank on India's rise to shore up its capabilities and also enable it to uphold

09:52

certain aspects of the current international order that they think is eroding.

09:57

So Professor Jacob, India's relationship with China have deteriorated drastically since 2020.

10:05

So how is India trying to manage its relationship with China?

10:10

I think it is a difficult relationship that India has with China.

10:14

I mean, if you put that in perspective, India is probably as strong as it has ever been

10:19

in the last 200 years and yet it's perhaps the weakest it has ever been vis-à-vis China.

10:25

In the late 1980s, India and China were roughly equal in their economic...

10:31

as far as GDP was concerned.

10:32

But today, China is four to five times larger than India.

10:36

That applies to also the technological and military sphere.

10:39

So when sitting in India, we understand a lot of people look at China as India's principal contradiction.

10:46

Yes. China is a neighbor of India,

10:50

and there's also the fact that you need China as an economic aspect, right?

10:59

Absolutely. China is an important trading partner.

11:04

If India were to stop the trade with China, not that it should happen, but hypothetically speaking,

11:10

Indian businesses will suffer and it will have very little impact on China.

11:14

Remember, the trade imbalance is also in China's favor.

11:19

So India needs China, India needs to trade with China, but at the same time defend against China.

11:24

So I think India's ability to make defense agreements or security agreements

11:30

with other countries will be determined by this balancing act that India has to do

11:35

vis-à-vis the economic aspect as well as the military aspect.

11:40

Right. A big contradiction there.

11:45

Dr. Nachiappan, how is India trying to use the leverage it has,

11:51

perhaps on the economic front, to deal with China or to balance business and caution, if you will?

12:02

Well, that's a very difficult question, and it's a challenge for India as Happymon mentioned.

12:07

The trade imbalance is tilted against India, about 130 billion dollars.

12:12

But it could also work in India's favor,

12:15

and you've seen that in how it's played its hand with China with respect to technology.

12:21

So India is one of the first countries and maybe, probably the only country that's banned TikTok.

12:27

It has increasingly frozen different kinds of Chinese FDI into the Indian tech ecosystem

12:35

and in other industries where Chinese interests have been deeply... interested in investing in.

12:43

And it's also placed arbitrary measures against Chinese companies and state-owned enterprises in India.

12:51

So even though the economic issue is largely against India,

12:57

it also serves India's interests in that it can use that as leverage against China in certain respects.

13:04

Director Curtis, why are the US and India coming closer than ever now?

13:10

I think if we look at the professor's graphic,

13:15

what we see is India has advantages when it comes to being an Indo-Pacific power.

13:24

And increasingly it's being seen as an important global naval power,

13:31

and of course working more closely with the Quad countries, with the US, Australia, and Japan in this space.

13:39

But when we look at the other side of the graphic,

13:42

the land borders, India has some vulnerabilities, some real vulnerabilities.

13:47

And we saw that play out in 2020 during the India-China border crisis.

13:53

And I agree that that border crisis with China

13:57

really has shifted India's strategic orientation in some very significant ways,

14:03

and I think it has really encouraged India to play to its strengths,

14:11

to look toward the Quad and the other naval democracies and work together with them

14:21

in order to try to shape its overall security environment.

14:26

So that's really how I see this graphic that the professor laid out.

14:32

And what's the importance of India for the US in terms of the Indo-Pacific stability?

14:42

Well, I think India is extremely important.

14:44

India is the only country that really has the will and the capabilities to be able to stand up to China.

14:54

And India can provide an alternative for the Southeast Asian nations

15:00

that may not want to be wholly dependent on China or looking only toward China.

15:05

So I think it's not only the US but other countries want to see India

15:11

play this influential role in the region and bringing its capabilities to bear.

15:18

And seeing India as a non-hegemonic, democratic rising power is very appealing to the region.

15:26

And the United States also wants India to have those capabilities.

15:31

And that's why we see increasing defense and security cooperation between the US and India.

15:38

The launch of the iCET, or Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies,

15:44

where the two sides have agreed to coproduce jet-engine technology,

15:50

which was a major milestone in the US-India defense and security relationship.

15:55

So this shows that the US has confidence in India as a rising Indo-Pacific power

16:03

and wants to assist India in achieving those capabilities that are necessary for it

16:10

to have that influence and play that role in the region.

16:16

Now, Professor Hirose, India is also putting a lot of focus on the Global South, the emerging economies.

16:25

Why do you think India is trying to increase influence there?

16:29

Right now, the developed country, G7 accounts for only 40% of the world's GDP.

16:39

In other words, the least developed country and developing country are more mainstream.

16:46

And in the future, the Global South will have a more active voice.

16:51

So India, as a developed country, is trying to reach out and unite the South.

16:56

And China, on the other hand, aims to bring the South under its economic control.

17:04

So I think there is and there will be the under-the-radar battle between the two sides.

17:10

Well, now, I'd like to shift our conversation towards the risks involving India's multidirectional foreign policy.

17:20

And, Professor Jacob, what do you think are some of the downsides to this approach?

17:27

To begin with, I think, it means that India is spreading itself a bit too thin,

17:33

meaning that as part of this kind of a multidirectional strategy,

17:38

India's ability to have substantive conversations with various powers would be somewhat limited.

17:45

This also means that there is going to be less clarity going forward as to who will do what for India

17:51

should there be an emergency on the Line of Actual Control with China.

17:55

When you are with everybody, there is a danger that nobody is going to be your true friend.

18:00

I think that's the biggest danger.

18:03

And that is also why perhaps India is still unwilling to move away from Russia in a significant manner,

18:08

because the only friend that India has in the continental space to the west and north is Russia

18:15

even though it is preoccupied with the Ukraine war today.

18:20

Well, I don't think that India's neutrality toward Russia's invasion of Ukraine

18:26

has really impacted in a significant way the US-India relationship.

18:31

However, I do see risks for the future.

18:34

And to begin with, I think India's reliance on Russian military gear...

18:41

80% of Indian military stocks are still Russian origin, its defense equipment.

18:48

50% of its military imports are still from Russia.

18:52

So India is still pretty reliant on Russia for military equipment.

18:56

And this could become problematic as Russia is sanctioned, increasingly isolated within the global community.

19:06

I think it may become more difficult for the US and India to share technology.

19:13

The US might be more reluctant to share its technology

19:17

if it feels that Russia may be able to access that.

19:21

So I think there are potentially obstacles that are going to emerge

19:26

because of India's continuing close relationship with Russia.

19:32

And I think this is a result of its multidirectional policy not wanting to alienate Russia

19:42

particularly because India feels that it needs Russia's support in case something does happen with China.

19:51

If there is another border crisis with China,

19:54

India would be dependent on that Russian military gear and Russia's diplomatic support.

20:02

But I think the problem with that calculation is that Russia seems to be getting more dependent on China,

20:09

so that if there is a future crisis between India and China,

20:13

I'm not sure that India would be able to count on Russia because

20:17

Russia would be more likely to do China's bidding in that situation.

20:23

So I think there are challenges to India's desire to remain autonomous

20:30

and have different relationships with different countries.

20:35

And this is something that I think Indian strategic thinkers will really have to consider:

20:44

how best to protect India's security interests,

20:50

with particular focus on China as the main threat coming down the pike.

20:55

So, Dr. Nachiappan, do you think that India's further rise as a global power

21:04

could make it more difficult in a way to pursue multidirectional approach?

21:11

Well, it could.

21:12

I think as India's power grows, as its interests widen,

21:16

the expectations on India will also increase, right?

21:19

The questions for it to shoulder more burdens in the international order will only rise.

21:25

And I think you've seen that through the crises that have broken out since 2022.

21:31

A multidirectional, a multi-aligned foreign policy runs into problem

21:36

when you have major crises like Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Gaza break out.

21:43

Given India's growing economic and diplomatic heft,

21:48

it could be expected to be more forthright on where it stands in such crises

21:53

and whether it should or can help address or resolve them as its power grows, irrespective of its interests.

22:00

And as a result, India will possibly find itself in a place

22:03

where it might have to explain and clarify its position and behavior,

22:08

either privately, as it's been doing with critical partners like the United States,

22:12

and that's what you're probably going to see happening in the future.

22:17

You know, the argument that India should take a side when there are global tensions.

22:23

I think it's perhaps one asking too much of India,

22:27

given its own developmental and other geopolitical challenges, located where it is.

22:33

It is located in a very difficult geopolitical context.

22:37

I think that's the first part.

22:39

The second part is, just because India is not taking sides in a geopolitical confrontation or a rivalry

22:45

does not mean India is not contributing to the international system or the international order,

22:50

India has been contributing stridently to the global order,

22:55

even though India has not been accommodated into the global order in a mainstream manner.

23:00

India is not a member of the UNSC, for example.

23:02

India is not a member of the G7. It's an invitee there.

23:05

So India is not a member of the NSG.

23:07

It's being sort of sidelined from any of these conversations.

23:11

And yet, India has been foregrounding many of the issues

23:15

that dominate the global conversations today in other parts of the world...

23:18

The question of debt restructure, and the question of vaccine diplomacy,

23:23

the question of vaccine patent, the question of climate change, funds for the developing world,

23:30

funds for the the question of disaster relief, the question of other global commons, et cetera, et cetera.

23:35

I think there are other divides in the world between North and the South,

23:39

the developed and the developing world, Asia and Europe, Britain, Asia.

23:45

So I think you got to look at India's contribution to the global order in a more comprehensive manner.

23:52

I think Happymon Jacob made an excellent point which is that

23:56

even though India has not been part of some of these major multilateral groupings,

24:03

they have still contributed to global norms and maintaining the global rules-based order in very important ways.

24:13

And I think we really saw this at the G20.

24:17

India held the G20 Summit last September,

24:21

and you could really see India taking a strong role in leading initiatives

24:28

like Global Public Digital Infrastructure and really showcasing its leadership role

24:38

and how it could play that bridging role between the Global South, the Global North.

24:44

And of course the US very much acknowledges that and, I think,

24:48

has confidence in India to be that kind of bridging power.

24:52

But you know, and I think it says something,

24:55

something about the fact that India has been vastly increasing its oil exports from Russia,

25:04

it's remained neutral in that conflict,

25:08

and yet that has not really had a very negative impact on the US-India relationship.

25:14

So that says something about India's leverage and its ability to keep an independent policy.

25:25

Professor Hirose, what do you think about this?

25:30

Until now, multidirectional diplomacy attitude was possible

25:36

because of its relatively minor role of India in international stage.

25:44

But I think at some point India have to clarify its intention to the world.

25:54

For example, importing oil from Iran and Russia while other countries are affording sanction to these countries.

26:05

These kinds of situation, I think, will be... become more difficult.

26:12

So India should clarify its intention to the world.

26:19

Now, we will focus on the remarkable growth of India's economy, especially in the IT sector,

26:26

and the many ways in which technology is shaping society.

26:37

India has traditionally led the world in mathematics.

26:40

It has leveraged this strength to rapidly develop its IT and AI industries.

26:47

The heads of some of the world's best-known IT companies are from India.

26:52

India is now using IT and AI to dramatically advance industries that had previously lagged behind.

26:59

Agriculture is one example.

27:02

We promise to double farmers' incomes.

27:06

AI technology can make it happen.

27:11

This young farmer uses an agriculture app with built-in AI.

27:16

When he uploads a photo of damaged rice plants, the likely cause of the damage appears.

27:22

The cut worm larvae kill the young seedlings
or just transplanted plants in the soil surface level.

27:28

AI gives advice on the best pesticides to eliminate the pest and how to apply them.

27:34

They can be purchased via the app.

27:37

This man says his income has increased by 1.8 times

27:40

since he started using the app three years ago.

27:44

Time saving, money, and the knowledge about crops,
that all has changed.

27:52

It's definitely very good.
It's useful for us farmers.

27:57

Instead of regarding IT and AI as urban-based technology,

28:02

it's India's plan to utilize AI to modernize the entire country, including rural areas.

28:10

Dr. Jacob, it is very impressive to see how India is embracing AI and IT

28:16

to improve its agricultural sector and others.

28:20

Do you also see around you in your daily lives, in people's daily lives,

28:25

the benefits of improved digital infrastructure?

28:31

Absolutely, yes. I think...

28:34

I live in Delhi, but I travel very often to Uttar Pradesh and other places.

28:41

Some of these are really poor states.

28:43

But the manner in which mobile telephone and the Internet

28:49

has revolutionized the Indian rural hinterland is something to be seen to be believed.

28:56

It has transformed the local economy in many ways.

28:59

The local farmers, for example, are able to get better returns for their produce.

29:05

They are able to understand what is the...

29:08

for example, the prices for their produce in better and bigger markets.

29:14

It has... in many ways, starting to cut out the middle men from the supply chains.

29:19

So I think these are all very important and impressive changes in the local economy.

29:23

The Indian economy has come a very long way since 1991, from about 270-billion-dollar GDP to about...

29:30

close-to-4-trillion-dollar economy today.

29:32

But I think there are also significant challenges as the country faces...

29:36

its per capita GDP is still about 2,000 dollars.

29:40

So there is unemployment, there is poverty.

29:43

But a country of this size, returning specifically to the question that you asked me,

29:49

we'll need to take revolutionary steps in order to grow rapidly using advanced technology.

29:57

I think technology is perhaps the only answer to India's internal, domestic, economic challenges.

30:03

I think new technology will need to be brought in through AI and other...

30:09

adopting the artificial intelligence or other such technologies

30:14

and sort of skilling the population using online means.

30:18

You have a lot of people who are unable to go to school, but they are...

30:23

many of them have mobile phones.

30:25

Why not use online platforms in order to skill this population and give them certificates

30:31

and then enable them to sort of work in local industries?

30:33

I think that's probably the way out. Use technology.

30:37

And technology is perhaps India's big answer to the big challenge

30:41

that it faces as far as an unskilled population whose average age is 25 years old at this point.

30:48

That's very, very innovative.

30:50

And, IT is not only improving people's lives in India,

30:54

but it's also the driving force for India's economy in the global arena.

31:01

And, Dr. Nachiappan, what do you think is the biggest strength of India's economy?

31:10

Well, I think India's economic success largely hinges on its services sector,

31:15

which has experienced transformative growth over the last three decades.

31:20

If you look at software and services, like exports in 1990, it was about 100 million dollars,

31:26

and last year it was about 300 billion dollars, which is really transformative and massive.

31:33

And there are a lot of reasons why this has come to be.

31:37

If the foundations of India's IT software revolution were really laid a long time ago,

31:42

going back to the research institutes,

31:45

the IITs that essentially became centers for the development of computer science and technology in India.

31:52

But that took a... that boom took a couple more decades to come to fruition in the 1980s,

31:58

when the government then liberalized imports to support the software industry.

32:05

Things then picked up quickly after that with market reforms in the 1990s and the 2000s,

32:10

when the IT industry really experienced rapid growth,

32:13

expanding services beyond software development.

32:16

And that was really supported by a growing demand across the world as well for IT services, especially from the West.

32:25

That has more or less sustained over time.

32:29

I think the last decade or so, this technological base has informed

32:34

and shaped some really transformative government digital initiatives like Aadhaar,

32:39

which is the biometric identity database that has essentially made India

32:46

into a completely digitalized society and economy.

32:49

That's affecting all aspects of life today.

32:55

And Director Curtis, how much potential does the US see in India's economy and market?

33:05

India is a tremendous market for the United States,

33:09

and really the economic relationship is foundational for the US-India partnership, and I see that only increasing.

33:20

Bilateral trade has surpassed 200 billion now.

33:24

It will continue to grow.

33:25

And as the previous speakers talked about the IT revolution,

33:31

India's development of its digital infrastructure,

33:36

all of these things have really showed the potential of the Indian economy

33:43

and created synergies between the US and India.

33:46

You have so many Indian IT workers here in the United States

33:50

who are contributing in significant ways to the US digital economy as well.

33:56

And we have over 270,000 Indian students studying here in the United States.

34:05

That's also a huge source of the people-to-people ties between the two countries.

34:12

So these all make India a very appealing market for the United States,

34:18

and you'll continue to see increased investment and trade between the two countries.

34:25

But if we want to address some of the challenges with the Indian economy,

34:30

I think one thing I would point to is the youthful population.

34:35

Obviously you have the demographic dividend,

34:38

but let's not forget that that means there needs to be 1 million jobs created every month in India

34:47

to support this growing population as they enter the workforce.

34:54

So that will be a challenge for India moving forward.

34:58

And the second one I'll mention is some of the protectionist tendencies that remain in India.

35:04

For India to really reach its true potential,

35:07

its true economic potential, it is going to need trade and investment.

35:16

It's going to need to open those markets fully for global trade and investment.

35:22

This is still a problem in India, the bureaucracy and getting around some of those barriers to investment.

35:30

Also, infrastructure. Making sure that infrastructure is totally up to par.

35:35

Roads, power, all these things that you need for an efficient manufacturing base.

35:43

I think these are the things that investors are looking for in India as well as a stable investment environment

35:53

that includes well-functioning legal systems and legal protections for these countries or these investors.

36:01

They want to see a stable, predictable investment environment.

36:06

So, Professor Hirose, what's behind this strain of protectionism?

36:12

Why isn't it able to open up its market?

36:15

Rapid economic growth may sometimes lead to the public dissatisfaction.

36:22

Behind this is the income disparity.

36:26

For example, attracting foreign companies may help the urban areas to develop,

36:35

but not necessarily the regional economy that relies on the production of the primary goods.

36:43

So we need to be aware of the various kinds of development happening in parallel within the country.

36:53

So as the case with the demonstration of the farmers

37:00

demanding the protection of the guaranteed price of their price.

37:05

So we should be very careful about the stability of the Indian politics

37:16

to have the steady economic growth in India.

37:23

And how must India do that?

37:26

Right. I mean, the disparity is an issue in the country,

37:29

but there is only so much that you can do in terms of the government intervention.

37:34

But I would sort of put more premium on the question of opening up the Indian economy as Lisa talked about.

37:42

While India has come a long way from its sort of autarchic protectionist past,

37:47

India is still sort of shy of engaging in sort of multilateral trade in a free manner.

37:54

Starting business in India is still a challenge.

37:56

Doing business in India... ease of business hasn't improved in a revolutionary sense of the term.

38:03

But more importantly, India is still fighting, shy of joining many FTAs, the free trade agreements.

38:09

India still does not have an FTA with, for example, the European Union.

38:13

From 2014 to 2021, Narendra Modi government had actually forced all FDA negotiations.

38:19

It opened up the FDA negotiations 2021.

38:22

We are more keen to engage in bilateral FTAs rather than multilateral FTAs.

38:27

I think that reluctance needs to go.

38:32

India needs to show more confidence in sort of engaging multilateral FTAs.

38:40

Now, in our final segment, we will turn to India's future.

38:44

The country will hold general elections this year,

38:47

and we will discuss what the results could mean for India in the coming years.

38:51

First, here's a look at some of the issues at stake.

39:01

Since assuming office, Prime Minister Modi has focused on developing the manufacturing sector,

39:06

with the policy known as "Make in India."

39:11

There's also a focus on the automotive industry, with its tremendous potential.

39:15

It's already the third largest in the world, surpassing Japan in terms of sales volume.

39:22

On the other hand, there's a movement that could be taken as an emphasis on Hinduism,

39:27

and a serious youth unemployment issue,

39:30

which is estimated to be 10% in urban areas, as of 2022.

39:36

Under such circumstances, a general election will be held from April to May this year.

39:42

It's said that in India, both developed and developing countries coexist in one nation.

39:48

How to address its various disparities is a major point of dispute.

39:54

Professor Jacob, media outlets are predicting that Prime Minister Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party will do well in the elections.

40:02

And if that happens, how do you think the Indian government

40:05

will try to address domestic issues like disparities after the election?

40:11

Well, I think as far as Mr. Modi's potential third term is concerned, he has already...

40:18

and his party has said that there is going to be...

40:22

the third time is going to be for big things and for big steps as far as the country is concerned.

40:28

As far as the domestic challenges are concerned,

40:30

I suppose this is perhaps going to be the time for Mr. Modi to open up the domestic economy more

40:38

to sort of get rid of some of the difficulties.

40:41

As far as integrating the Indian economy to the international, global economy is concerned,

40:46

I think there's going to be more liberalization,

40:49

getting rid of some of the archaic laws which are hindering the investment into India.

40:56

Market reforms are likely to be on the horizon.

41:00

There is also perhaps going to be more open, I think,

41:05

assessment of where India's policies have gone wrong domestically

41:09

in terms of its economic development or other infrastructure issues,

41:15

be it physical infrastructure or digital infrastructure of the education system.

41:21

Mr. Modi has the desire to sort of pitch himself as the modern-day Nehru, Jawaharlal Nehru, the 1st prime minister,

41:30

who set the tone for the growth of the Indian economy and the Indian republic in many ways.

41:36

So, Dr Nachiappan, how do you think India will or should move after the election?

41:46

It's a challenge that it can meet both internally by improving its own growth rates,

41:51

by building up its economic capabilities, by opening up more to the global economy, by signing more trade agreements,

41:58

by developing more industries and sectors, by investing in education and health care.

42:06

So there's a big domestic economic component to it,

42:10

which will shore up the economy that will give India the financing to materially protect itself against China.

42:20

On the other side, there's an external component to it as well.

42:22

And here India has actually been doing quite well.

42:25

So the partnership with the United States as you've seen, which has deepened over the last two decades,

42:32

I would say largely because of China and how the China threat has unified both India and America's interests.

42:40

And this is converging with how India's own relationship with other partners like

42:45

Japan, Australia, Vietnam, for example, in Southeast Asia, who have their own similar challenges with China.

42:53

But I think over the long term, the focus has to be domestic.

42:58

I think India has more control here.

43:01

It has much more... it's also much more important in determining

43:07

how it generates the capability that it has to deal with China.

43:13

I don't think India is yet ready to make any revolutionary strides in terms of its China policy.

43:21

So far, Indian approach has been one of underbalancing China,

43:26

for precisely the reasons that I pointed out earlier, being next door and having to do trade with China,

43:32

and sort of having not too many friends in the neighborhood.

43:37

So all of those reasons will continue to persuade India to somewhat underbalance China going forward.

43:43

But I think there are some fundamental steps that are being taken.

43:46

If you look at the India-China border, the Line of Actual Control,

43:49

there's more troop deployment as far as from the Indian side.

43:53

There is more defense construction there.

43:55

India has completely refocused from Pakistan to China as a strategic choice.

44:02

India has also moved into the Indo-Pacific precisely for two reasons.

44:06

One, because India needs to trade more with other countries,

44:09

but also because I think India realizes that going forward,

44:13

India's friends will be in the Indo-Pacific than in this sort of continental sphere.

44:18

And also I think there is a growing sentiment in India that

44:24

you need to be careful in doing business with China, be it in the tech sector, in the sector...

44:31

in various other sectors which are sensitive and strategic.

44:34

So I think all of this over time will create conditions for India

44:39

to deal with the China challenge in a more innovative way.

44:42

So, professor Hirose, how do you view the significance of

44:47

people with roots in India getting more recognition outside?

44:52

The power of the people with roots in India is remarkable and incredible.

44:58

You see the prime minister of the United Kingdom and also the vice president of the US

45:07

and former governor of South Carolina is of the Indian descent.

45:12

And many of the leaders of IT companies like GAFA is also of the Indian descent.

45:20

They are connected to each other and form the network providing the information and the funds

45:27

and the technology and also the human resources and connected in itself.

45:33

And I think one more notable thing about Indian migrants is,

45:40

compared to Chinese, overseas Chinese, they are more melted in... blended into the larger society.

45:51

And Ms. Curtis, the US presidential election is also going to happen this November.

45:57

How do you think the outcome will affect the US policy towards India?

46:03

Well, I think the short answer is, not a lot.

46:07

I think despite who is elected, a Republican or Democrat,

46:13

you will continue to see a prioritization of the India-US relationship.

46:20

If we look at what's happened in US-India relations over the last 20 years,

46:26

we can see that there's been bipartisan support for growing that partnership.

46:32

And if you look at the former Trump administration, the administration I actually served in,

46:39

you can see there was a great deal of progress on the US-India relationship.

46:44

There was the removal of technology controls on India, allowing India to be able to access drone technology,

46:55

the first non-NATO ally to be able to access that technology.

47:02

You saw strong support for India during the India-China border crisis in the form of increased intelligence sharing,

47:11

provision of military gear to India.

47:15

So I think despite who is elected in the United States in November,

47:23

India will continue to be a core relationship for the United States.

47:29

OK. And, Dr. Nachiappan, from a wider perspective,

47:35

what other leading roles do you think India can play in the international community going forward?

47:43

I think India has so far done well balancing all these pressures while trying to advance its own interests.

47:51

At the same time, India is trying to be a connector, a bridging power between different geographies,

47:56

I think, to me, India's power can be amplified and enhanced

47:59

by serving as an example in how it deals domestically with challenges like climate change,

48:07

with pandemics, with disinformation and misinformation, with food security, energy security.

48:14

I think if India manages and addresses these challenges at home well,

48:21

it will not only have systemic effects, given its size,

48:24

but importantly I think it will provide other countries pathways and options to also figure it out themselves.

48:32

I think a case in point is the whole discussion about digital public infrastructures and financial inclusion.

48:40

So the massive success of the fintech and mobile payments revolution in India,

48:46

which was largely because of Aadhaar and the unified payments interface, UPI,

48:52

that system is now being exported around the world, both developing and developed countries.

48:58

So to me, the question for India is:

49:00

"How do you create effective technological and digital solutions that can be scaled up

49:07

to address some really difficult policy problems that we are all engaged with?"

49:14

I think the world really needs that from India.

49:16

And India's own example in how it deals with addressing these challenges can really be useful at this juncture.

49:25

All right, well, everyone, thank you so much for the great discussion.

49:30

India is a rising power with unlimited possibilities.

49:35

We will watch and see how it will use its power to shape its own future

49:40

and that of the rest of the global community in the years to come.

49:44

That's all for this edition of "GLOBAL AGENDA."

49:46

I'm Yamamoto Miki in Tokyo. Thanks for watching.