Hello and welcome to DEEEPR LOOK.

I'm Del Irani, it's great to have your company.

As the conflict between Israel and Hamas rages on, there are growing concerns around the world.

Israel has expanded ground operations in Gaza,

in retaliation for the deadly attack by Hamas that took place on October 7th.

As the death toll of Palestinians rises,

calls for a pause in fighting to allow humanitarian aid to reach the people in Gaza are growing,

putting pressure on Israel as well as the US, Israel's top ally.

What exactly are the global implications of this conflict?

How will it affect the US's standing and what are the implications for Asia and the rest of the world?

Joining me now to talk more about this is Ian Bremmer.

He's the president and founder of Eurasia group, the world's leading political risk research and consulting firm.

- Welcome back to the program, Ian. Great to have you with us again.
- Happy to be back, Del.

So, Ian, you know, Israel and Palestine have had a very long history of conflict.

What is the significance of the Hamas attack that took place on October 7, and Israel's subsequent response?

Well, the attack represented the worst loss of life for Jews anywhere in the world since the Holocaust.

Now, the Israeli response.

There's been an era of deterrence, where Israel has looked at its enemies,

and Israel, of course, has far greater military capabilities than its enemies in the region.

And they've said, "Look. If you ever attack us, we're going to hit you back harder.

And then we're going to reestablish security and stability,

and you will be deterred from doing other such things to us in the future."

That is over. It's over.

They have decided that they are going to destroy Hamas.

This is regime change in Gaza.

And that means an extended bombing campaign and a ground campaign

under very, very difficult fighting conditions,

to remove some 30 to 40,000 military fighters and their leadership from a population of over 2.3 million.

And that is what we are now seeing, and what will lead to a significant expansion of this war beyond just Gaza.

So, let's talk about what you just said,

which is Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have said that they want to annihilate Hamas.

Is it really possible to do that?

I mean, are they going to be able to remove Hamas altogether?

Oh, I think they can destroy Hamas, if they want to.

I mean, frankly, they're capable of leveling all of Gaza City, if they want to.

They've got the weaponry. I mean, the question is, at what cost?

The Palestinians who have no power and no ability to defend themselves,

will be those that are most suffering as a consequence of this kind of conflict.

But then also, the question is what happens to those that remain?

Does anyone believe if you remove Hamas,

that you will not radicalize a new generation of Palestinians, who will be even angrier?

That you do not radicalize the Arab street more broadly.

That you do not radicalize Shia militias and the Iranian proxy forces

that are not just empowered in Gaza, but in Lebanon, and in Syria and in Iraq and in Yemen.

The reality is that the decisions that Israel are presently taking to destroy Hamas

will almost certainly undermine Israel's national security for decades to come,

and will also inflame a much broader region in warfare.

Tell us a little bit about the political landscape of the Middle East right now

and how these events are affecting the rest of the Middle East.

Well, let's first talk about how much Israel's position has changed.

In the run up to October 7, Israel kind of, ironically, had the strongest geopolitical position

that they had ever enjoyed since independence,

because of the Abraham Accords normalizing relations with several states across the region

because of the informal engagements with Saudi Arabia, that we're moving towards normalization.

Not quite imminently. But certainly, within months.

At the same time, Del, you had Israel's domestic environment that was unprecedentedly fractious,

with massive numbers of Israelis demonstrating continually every week

against the Netanyahu government and the judicial reforms that they were attempting to make

to undermine the independence of a very strong judiciary in Israel.

After October 7, those two things have flipped.

You now have Israel in a much more vulnerable geopolitical position with their weakness on national security having been shown,

the Saudi deal certainly frozen for now and the Arab street, you know, sort of in enormous anger.

And yet, domestically, Israel is now vastly more unified

because everybody is focusing first, second, third, fifth priority

on ensuring that Israel can beat back a fundamental threat to their population.

And they will all work together to fight that war.

Everything else is put aside.

So that describes Israel and it describes the broader context.

Now, if you want to broaden the aperture a little more widely than that.

Well, you've got the United States,

which is Israel's strongest ally, has immediately sent two carrier strike groups into the region.

One, the Eastern Med, one the Middle East, with the intention to show the Israelis that the US has their back.

And also threatening Iran and others, that they will face direct consequences if they get involved in the war.

This is already a war that is involving the United States, which, you know,

is not the case for almost two years of war between Russia and Ukraine.

So, the potential for this to get much, much bigger, very quickly,

is on a completely different scale and trajectory than what we've been experiencing.

And one of those things that has recently happened is Iran

coming out and warning both Israel and United States have harsh consequences if the attacks continue.

What does Iran mean? What type of harsh consequences?

What Iran is really talking about is that all of these Shia proxies that the Iranians fund and provide military support for and train.

But do not control.

They influence, they do not control. They're not Iranians.

That they will become much more violent,

and they will be willing to target Israel and target the United States in the region.

And Iran is counting on the fact that that kind of targeting will not lead to direct US or Israeli strikes against Iran itself.

All of the people that are angry now are aligned with Iran in the region.

And Israel getting into a fight against Hamas is something that makes the Iranian government very happy.

But they want to continue to pump oil, they want to export it, they want the money from that,

and a direct war with the United States or with Israel that brings in the United States would almost certainly end that.

So, I am worried about Iran's indirect involvement in the war.

I am less concerned about Iran's direct involvement in the war.

How would you know, friends, allies in the region, but also potential foes; you know, looking at Russia, China.

How are they viewing, you know, what's happening and the US's position?

I mean, is it significantly weaker now than it was a month ago?

It is weaker. This has been a great three weeks for Putin.

Putin's allies are Iran, Hamas, and North Korea.

I mean, two of those three are active belligerence of the United States and Israel on the ground in the region right now.

And Putin loves the fact that this is distracting the United States from Ukraine and making Biden look weaker.

Now, China, you know, their relationship is commercial in this region.

They have a very good relationship with Iran, and Iran relies on China economically to a significant degree,

but China has a better relationship with Saudi Arabia in the UAE.

And so, it's playing a different game in the Middle East than the United States,

which continues to have a very dominant military footprint.

But the US is actually an energy competitor in terms of production, with the OPEC producers on the ground.

And so, I mean, the Chinese actually have some shared interest with the United States.

They're certainly not big fans of Israel.

And then generally they haven't yet condemned Hamas directly.

But they do want the Middle East to stay stable.

They do want oil to get out of Iran.

They want the Straits of Hormuz to be passable.

In that regard I've seen Secretary of State Blinken talking with the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi about the Middle East.

And the US would like China to use some of its influence over Iran, which is not just punitive influence,

it's actually a much more constructive influence because of all the business they do.

To try to ensure that the Iranians don't do anything that would disrupt economic business from being conducted.

Because, you know, if this Iranian oil comes off the market,

and if they get directly involved in the war, either with Israel and/or with the United States;

you're talking about $150 oil; you're talking about a global recession.

And from Biden's perspective, you're talking about him losing the election.

So, Biden is very strongly incentive for Iran not to be in the war.

And of course, the fact that Iran knows this.

It makes Iran feels like they have more room to operate

in allowing their proxies to strike against US targets in the region,

in expanding their nuclear enrichment and their stockpiling of enriched uranium.

I mean, this is a challenging dynamic for the Americans.

What role can China play?

Or would you see China playing, when it comes to this conflict?

They want to have the same political and diplomatic engagement as the Gulf states do.

And so, they're trying to keep aligned with the principal countries in the region that they do business with.

Now, if I had been advising the Chinese leadership on how to play a big role, and how to really take advantage.

Right after October 7, when the bombing started, and the humanitarian outrage was beginning,

I would have told the Chinese - you send as much humanitarian aid to engage, and to set up refugee camps. Send all the tents.

The countries in the region, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt.

They are all doing business with you.

Pressure them hard to get that equipment into southern Gaza to take care of the Palestinians.

The Chinese could have been seen!

I mean, America is stuck on Israel side.

And they have very little ability to leverage the Israelis into stopping the fighting,

a humanitarian pause, getting more equipment in.

The Chinese, if they really wanted to take advantage, would have taken the other side of that.

And that would have led to significant alignment of not just the Middle East,

and the Arab street, but also the Global South with China.

So that was a big, glaring opportunity for the Chinese and they just did nothing.

And it's because they just don't have experience in this part of the world's diplomatically,

and they're concerned about making missteps.

And what about America's allies in the Asia-Pacific countries like Japan and other countries?

They may not necessarily share the same view.

They want it over as soon as possible? Right?

I mean, because the thing is that, at least with Russia-Ukraine, you had this multilateral coordination and support.

It wasn't the Americans alone. That's just not going to happen here.

I mean, look at some point, Del, you are probably going to have...

I mean, I hate to predict something like this, but it seems almost inevitable,

especially with all of the spike in antisemitic attacks in the United States just exploding right now.

You're gonna have a major extremist Muslim terrorist attack on the US soil.

And when that happens, Americans are gonna go absolutely ballistic about it,

"We've got to take these guys out. We've got to do something."

The Japanese are going to want to be arm's length from that.

The South Koreans are going to be arm's length from that.

The Europeans are going to be very divided on that.

You'll have some countries that will be with the United States, you'll have others that absolutely will not.

And the EU won't be able to take a common position. So, this is not where...

I mean the Japanese support rule of law, multilateralism,

and working within existing international institutions and architecture.

That's what Japan wants.

It's a big economy that doesn't have a very strong military.

They need people to play by rules of the road.

And the Middle East right now are blowing up all the rules of the road at a time

that you had hoped that it was becoming more stable.

This is not a position that Japan wants to be in.

Ian Bremmer, thank you so much for your time.

- Really great talking to you. Thank you.
- Good to see you. Absolutely.

The Israel-Hamas conflict has sent shockwaves around the world

and there are wide-ranging implications not just for the US but several other countries too...

The longer this conflict rages on, the greater the risk to the stability of the region.

I'm Del Irani, thanks for your company.

I'll see you next time on DEEPER LOOK!