Hello and welcome to DEEPER LOOK.

I'm Del Irani, it's great to have your company.

Recently, there have been some dramatic developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

On 24th June, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the Wagner Group,

- whose forces have been fighting alongside the Russian military against Ukraine began marching toward Moscow...

It was a short-lived but shocking mutiny that nonetheless sent shockwaves around the world...

These events took place just as Ukraine's own military counter offensive began in June...

and is still ongoing.

So more than 500 days into the invasion, where do things currently stand in this conflict?

And what are the implications for rest of the world, especially Asia?

Joining me now to talk more about this is Ian Bremmer.

He's the president and founder of Eurasia group, the world's leading political risk research and consulting firm.

Welcome back to the program, Ian.

Great to have you with us again.

Del, wonderful.

Happy to be with you.

So, at the recent NATO Summit, you know, the leaders have pledged more military aid to Ukraine.

What do you make of the efforts that have been made by NATO leaders to kind of end this conflict?

Do you think enough is being done?

Well, we know that the initial effort was sanctions.

We've had 11 rounds of sanctions from the Europeans, the Americans have done the same.

They've made it clear that they're not going to do business with Russia going forward.

But it hasn't had a great impact on the Russian economy.

And it certainly hasn't changed Russian behavior.

There's also been very strong military support for Ukraine,

led by the United States, but with the Europeans also supporting,

and that has helped the Ukrainians to liberate a lot of their territory,

and be able to get most of the 8.5 million Ukrainians

that were refugees back to their homes, back to the country back to their home.

So, in that regard, there's been success.

On the other hand, the Ukrainian still have large numbers of Russian forces on their territory,

and they are not likely to be able to recapture all of it militarily.

The Russians have been unwilling to come to the table to discuss leaving that territory.

And the Ukrainians here-to-for have been unwilling to come to the table

to discuss possibly having to cede some of that territory and you can understand why they feel that way.

Having said that, there is a lot of pressure economically and militarily on the Ukrainians,

how much longer can they continue to defend their territory effectively?

There's also a lot of pressure on Russia, not economically.

But you saw that the Wagner group Mr. Prigozhin, attempted a push against the Kremlin.

As this war persists over 500 days now, there are greater domestic pressures on both the Ukrainians and the Russians,

to eventually create some kind of, if not a negotiated breakthrough, at least the ceasefire.

At least to stop the level of fighting that we've all been experiencing for the past couple of years.

One of the other things that came out of that summit was

that NATO did not present a timeline to Ukraine for its membership.

What do you think was behind this decision?

And how do you think Russia would be viewing that decision by NATO?

I don't think it matters very much.

I was a little surprised that Zelenskyy the Ukrainian president

came to the summit and called the Western lack of calendar absurd.

And two days later, we had a very different story from Zelenskyy.

He had been told by the Americans running up to that summit,

that there was no way that they were going to get a date on NATO accession.

And there's no way they could have.

There is no unanimity among NATO members to make that occur.

And furthermore, you've got a US election coming up in 2024.

If Trump becomes the president, and he is very likely to be the Republican nominee,

any NATO process will be ripped up for Ukraine.

So, the idea that Biden would put something forward

that the Americans have a good chance of not being able to go ahead with,

would only be damaging to the Ukrainians, and to the NATO alliance.

Now what was provided to Ukraine is redoubled military aid,

additional forces that they can use to help kick the Russians out of their territory,

and also a G7 multilateral commitment that is going to persist beyond this US electoral cycle

for intelligence support, for cyber defenses, for training, and for equipment.

And that I think, is the most meaningful agreement

that could have come out of Vilnius, and it indeed did come out of Vilnius.

NATO today is much stronger, and much more coordinated than it was before the Russians invaded Ukraine.

And the reason for that is because the Russians invaded Ukraine.

Let's talk about what happened earlier in June,

the Wagner forces suddenly decided to march towards Moscow.

It was short lived, but it was shocking.

You have been a watcher of this region for a very long time.

How shocking and unprecedented were these events?

Well, unprecedented.

Certainly, we've seen nothing like it since the coup attempt in August 1991 in Soviet days,

several months before Gorbachev eventually resigned in the Soviet Union collapsed.

Probably the most dramatic geopolitical event of your and my lifetimes, Del.

So, this is quite an event.

I did not presume that he was going to take his troops in March on Moscow.

I thought he would get the hell out of the country.

I thought he'd go to Mali, he'd go to Libya and, you know, but, the fact that,

that he decided to go to Rostov.

And then he didn't stop there.

When he decides that he's going to turn on Moscow,

you know, at that point, he understands that this is a suicide mission.

And when he then, quote "cuts a deal," and he is apparently in Belarus today.

But there's no one I know, with any level of insight into Russia,

that believes he's going to stay alive for long.

So, I mean, this remains an unprecedented situation,

and we should not be talking about it as if it's over.

As long as Prigozhin is there and Putin has referred to him as a traitor, an enemy of the Russian people.

This is not over.

Russia has said that it will not extend its agreement

that has enabled Ukraine to export grain from its Black Sea ports for the past year.

In fact, it's gone another level further, and it has attacked Ukrainian grain storages,

grain storage facilities, according to the Ukrainian authorities.

They've lost 10s of 1000s of tons of grains.

What's going to be the global impact of this decision by Russia?

And, you know, what are they trying to do here?

The Russians had not been willing to blow up the deal over previous months

because they didn't want to be held responsible from the Global South;

countries that generally have been fairly neutral on the war thus far.

They didn't want to be held responsible for the economic consequences of the food prices going up,

of the fertilizer being unavailable, of the starvation that will come as a consequence.

And now they are.

So, they've broken this deal.

And to ensure that the deal stays broken, they have targeted Odessa port, they have targeted grain facilities.

These are obviously additional war crimes that the Russians continue to engage in.

And they have also said that they will consider that any ships that leave Ukraine,

may, will be will be considered as if they may be carrying military equipment.

In other words, they are trying to send a message to the Turks and anyone else

that would consider militarily escorting these ships, you're on notice, we will target them.

And that'll prevent the Turks from doing that.

So, the deal is thoroughly broken.

And there's no question that you can get grain out in other ways.

You can put it on rail cars, you can put it on trucks,

some of it you can move out through Romanian ports.

This is still going to be a small percentage of what had been getting out.

And a number of the lowest developed countries, particularly in Sub Saharan Africa,

that rely on that food, you will see 10s of 1000s of people die as a consequence of this decision by the Russians.

The fact is that this Ukraine crisis is having a greater impact

on the lowest developed countries around the world than any other major conflict out there.

Far more than conflicts like Haiti, or Chad or Sudan or Yemen.

It is that dangerous.

Let's quickly turn focus to Asia now.

At the beginning of this conflict more than a year ago,

China and Russia declared a very special friendship.

How do relations between Russia and China stand now?

Are they stronger now than they were a year ago?

They're stronger than they were a year ago.

Yes, I don't think they're stronger than they were a couple of weeks before the invasion,

when Putin met with Xi Jinping, at the beginning of the Beijing Olympics.

It feels like ages ago, when they declared that they were friends without global limits.

Keep in mind, the Chinese have been placed on notice by the United States.

That there will be direct sanctions if they decide to provide direct military support to the Russians.

And they have not provided that military support.

Even when Prigozhin was marching on Moscow, the Chinese did and said nothing.

So, I mean, this was an existential threat to Putin and China,

you know, basically showed that they're only willing to risk so much.

So yes, they're buying a lot more oil from the Russians.

Yes, they're providing non dual use semiconductors to the Russians,

they are an important economic partner.

Just as the Indians are, just as the South Africans are, just as are many countries in the Global South.

But I don't perceive China's relationship with Russia,

as materially different from India's relationship with Russia at this point.

I think Iran we can actually say, is a full military ally of the Russians and a participant in the war.

I think we can say that.

China is not.

Let's talk about India.

It's interesting you mentioned them because in terms of India, and a few other countries in the Asia Pacific region.

They have really, despite the US and NATO's best attempts to get them to take a side in this conflict, they really haven't.

I guess, I would love your analysis on what does this mean,

in terms of the US is influence in the Indo Pacific region?

I mean, does it perhaps not wield as much power and influence as it would like,

given that it can't convince these countries to side with the West?

Well, I do think the US-India relationship is at its best, as you and I have seen,

certainly since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and that was evidenced by Modi's trip to the United States.

It's evidenced by the QUAD.

It's evidenced by the high level of technological integration.

It's evidenced by India's relationship with China.

And of course, China's increasing client state Pakistan, which are completely broken.

So, I don't think that there is an India problem for the United States.

Now.

India, along with the Global South, are not prepared to do America's bidding on Russia.

They're not going to cut off their ties with Russia,

but part of that is because the Indians are not getting the kind of benefits from the United States.

You know, the pandemic hits and they need vaccines, and the Americans don't provide them.

And the level of international aid going to a country like India is pretty low.

The one place I would push back against your question is, it is American policy,

even if it's not stated very clearly, that the Indians should buy a lot of Russian oil.

The United States is not requesting that the Indians stop buying Russian oil.

Now that oil is at a discount.

And the Indians in return are refining a lot of oil, and they're selling it on to Europe.

Now, if the Indians were not to do that, the global economy would be in deep recession.

And no one wants that.

So, let's be clear about what America's policy is, and is not.

US policy and NATO's policy on Russia, is to help the Ukrainians defend themselves.

It's to get the Ukrainians to take as much territory as has been taken since February 24, back as humanly possible.

And it is to send a message to other would-be invaders of sovereign territory,

like the Chinese on Taiwan, that there will be consequences if you do that.

That's what the policy is.

The policy is not regime change of Russia.

The policy is not to destroy the Russian economy.

The policy is not to prevent the global south from continuing to do business with the Russians.

And no one wants to say that, but that is a reality.

Ian Bremmer, thank you so much for your time.

My pleasure.

How the Russia-Ukraine conflict unfolds remains critically important.

It could influence the future course of democracies around the world -

- and potentally become a major issue in the upcoming US presidential elections.

Join us next time as we discuss the U.S Presidential elections with Ian Bremmer on DEEPER LOOK.

I'm Del Irani, thanks for your company.

I'll see you then!