Hello and welcome to DEEPER LOOK.

I'm Del Irani, it's great to have your company.

The leaders of the United States, Japan, and South Korea

recently met in a landmark summit at the prestigious Camp David retreat in the US.

"If I seem like I'm happy, it's because I am.

This has been a great, great meeting..."

President Biden's joyful demeanor was largely due to significant progress being made on the diplomatic front -

with a number of measures aimed at tackling shared security concerns over North Korea and China.

So how exactly will this trilateral cooperation between the US, Japan, and South Korea

contribute to stability in the Asia-Pacific region?

And what is needed to make sure that this framework lasts?

Well, joining me now to talk more about this is Christopher Johnstone.

Mr. Johnstone is the Senior Advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and holds the Japan Chair.

With a 25-year career in government, he specializes in US policy on Japan and the Indo-Pacific,

having served as the director for East Asia at the National Security Council until last year.

Mr. Johnstone, welcome to the program. Great to have you with us.

Thanks very much. I appreciate it.

Um, so the summit between the US, Japan, and South Korea, wrapped up here in the United States.

And we saw a very cheerful President Biden. He seemed very happy with the outcome.

Can you elaborate on the historical significance of this meeting?

Yeah, it really was an historic event. You know, the leaders of these countries have met before.

These three leaders in particular have met four times previously.

President Obama met with President Park and Prime Minister Abe back in 2016, in Washington.

So, the meeting itself is not unprecedented.

But two things.

First, this is the first time that these leaders have gathered solely for the purpose of meeting each other.

At every other meeting, it was on the margins of another multilateral meeting, and they met on the side.

So, they met for this purpose alone.

And the second thing, really, the most important thing is this is an opportunity,

and they highlighted it at Camp David, to build a truly comprehensive partnership that is about far more than North Korea.

Past episodes of cooperation among these three countries were mostly about responding to the North Korean threat.

But what they set out at Camp David has a much broader based agenda aimed at contributing to peace and stability broadly,

across the Indo-Pacific.

So that's significant, very significant, in my view.

Mr. Johnstone, you have a really unique perspective into this

because you have worked with both the Obama and Biden administrations for years.

How do you feel about the cooperation between these countries at this level?

I mean, what's brought about this type of change?

Well, what I can tell you is that certainly the idea for a trilateral meeting at Camp David

is one that the administration has been thinking about for some time.

I would say that it goes back to the first days of the administration.

President Biden made it very clear early on,

that strengthening this partnership was going to be a major priority for him.

But the timing wasn't right until recently.

Japan and South Korea have had some difficult issues to work through, issues related to history,

the colonial period, some other issues related to trade and some security issues.

But over the last few months, those two leaders, President Yoon, Prime Minister Kishida,

have largely resolved those and have built a closer relationship themselves.

So, it's really gratifying to see this finally happen.

And it's impressive what they were able to announce.

It frankly exceeded even my expectations.

Why Japan and South Korea?

Why are these two countries so important for this... for President Biden?

They're vital because they're both democracies.

They're both US treaty allies.

And they're both leading economic powers in the region, right?

Japan is still the third largest economy in the world.

Korea is something like the 10th largest economy in the world,

but it's a leading economy when it comes to technology, environmental technologies, and in automobiles.

So, from that optic, this is, I think, by far the most important trilateral grouping that there is in the region.

And the truth is, all three of them are stronger when they stand together,

particularly when you think about the challenges posed by China in the region.

I think eliminating those seams among the three countries and taking a more integrated approach

really has a lot of promise to contribute to peace and stability in the region.

What are some of the most important elements of this new agreement to come out of the summit?

Yeah, I'd cite a few.

The first one is, and this was a sort of a stand-alone outcome that was released.

It's a commitment to consult in the event of threats or challenges faced by any one of the countries,

sort of a sense that a political...

political sense that a threat to one represents a threat to all.

Why is that significant?

It doesn't go as far as binding treaty language that commits one another to each other security.

It doesn't go that far.

But it makes a very powerful message, that we're all in this together.

And that we're committed to responding together to threats.

That's the first time Japan and South Korea have so openly acknowledged that their security is linked.

So, powerful political statement there.

They also announced, you know a range of initiatives related to economic security.

A pilot program, for example, related to a sort of early warning of supply chain shortages.

So again, a really comprehensive agenda that was set out here in one

that we haven't seen before coming out of a trilateral meeting of these countries.

How are these three countries - US, Japan, and South Korea -

how are they planning on addressing the concerns specifically posed by North Korea?

Um, they announced an intention to deepen cooperation related to ballistic missile defense,

which means that the three countries will share information related to launches from North Korea,

better position themselves to intercept missiles launched by North Korea.

There's a commitment, to a major, what they call multi-domain - so, a complex defense exercise.

Again, signaling that the two countries militaries are operating much more closely together.

And more broadly, just the commitment to sharing information on threats.

They have a long way to go to move toward a truly integrated Defense Partnership.

But what this does is it sends a very clear message to Pyongyang and to Beijing,

that a wedge cannot be driven between and among these countries.

That these countries stand in solidarity, and they're not going to be divided.

And that's a pretty, that's a pretty significant message.

And I'm sure it's gotten the attention both of Pyongyang.

And China has spoken out vocally criticizing this effort, which means that perhaps it was successful.

Yeah, and China has spoken out in part, to a statement that was released by the trilateral leaders.

The statement said,

"... regarding the dangerous and aggressive behavior ...

by the People's Republic of China in the South China Sea,

we strongly oppose any unilateral attempts

to change the status quo in the waters of the Indo-Pacific."

Now, this statement by itself is something we've heard before,

but why is it significant that all three countries released this statement jointly?

I mean, what is different about that?

You hit on what I think is actually one of the most important parts of that statement.

As I said before, this partnership is now far more than about North Korea.

And if you look at the joint statement, right—

That language that you just identified appears near the top.

They talk about China's behavior,

really at the outset and only about halfway through the document do they turn to the North Korean threat.

So, what it signals is that South Korea just as much as Japan

is very much a part of the effort to promote the rule of law, support a rules-based order in East Asia,

and that they're prepared to speak out about that.

President Yoon is different from past South Korean leaders.

He's willing to call China to account in ways that hasn't been true before.

And this is a great, a great example of that.

And I think is actually, a highlight of the outcomes is South Korea's voice

joining that of Japan and the United States on issues related to regional order in China.

And Mr. Johnstone, what did you make of China's response to this joint statement?

China was, of course, very critical, as they were, when this meeting was first announced,

and they were of the of the outcomes.

What I would say, though, is when you look at this trilateral partnership,

when you look at other developments in the region, the US, Japan, Australia relationship is deepening.

Recently, there's been a significant improvement in ties with the Philippines, among Japan and the United States.

There's the AUKUS partnership related to nuclear submarines.

Why are all these things happening now?

They're not happening because the Biden administration has magical diplomatic powers that other American presidents haven't had.

They're happening because countries in the region share a concern about the revisionist behavior

on the part of the People's Republic of China, and are taking steps to respond to that.

On the flip side, China has also been working to restart high level trilateral discussions with Japan and South Korea.

How do you see China's perspective on this trilateral cooperation

and what are the implications would this have for the region's dynamics?

Yeah, this is an important point, because you're right.

There has been talks about resuming the trilateral summit among China, Republic of Korea, and Japan.

And there's some talk of realizing that summit by the end of the year.

I think that's something the United States should support.

I think all of the United States, Japan, South Korea - all have deep interdependencies with China.

Both Japan and South Korea want to continue to have a stable and constructive relationship with China.

And so, it's natural that they seek to meet at the leader level and attempt to stabilize things through that channel.

Given the progress that was made at this meeting,

do you think that we are on the cusp of a whole new era of relations between particularly Japan and South Korea?

So, I am one who is optimistic.

There are many who are not as optimistic.

And I think there's nothing that you can do to fully eliminate the risk of backsliding in the future, right?

Nothing can fully prevent different political leadership in any of the three countries from moving away from the agreements.

But what's significant is how hard the leaders worked to institutionalize the initiatives that they're announcing.

So, for example, they committed to annual leaders' meetings, they committed to annual meetings of foreign ministers,

annual meetings of defense ministers, annual meetings of national security advisors.

They started a new finance ministers' dialog.

They started, as I said, a new annual military exercise.

They started a new dialogue on the Indo-Pacific.

The sum total of these things, carries a lot of weight.

And it would be hard, I think, for any future leader, to walk away from all of it.

And I think that's what they tried to do.

To try as much as they can to lock in this progress.

And I do think that there's a stronger basis now,

a stronger and a broader basis now for cooperation that has at least a solid chance

of enduring past political change in any of these countries.

I mean, there is a little bit of skepticism

particularly because the US and South Korea both have elections next year; Japan, by 2025.

What impact do you think this could have on the future of the trilateral Alliance?

Yeah, there's no question.

And I think, sort of, as you suggested, political change in the United States

is as much a factor of uncertainty as it is in the other countries, right?

I mean, I think we have to be honest about that.

Nothing can fully insulate this trilateral partnership from those changes.

I do think it will take political will.

There will no doubt be incidents, issues that emerge among the three countries.

Issues related to history will continue to be difficult between Japan and South Korea.

And so, what's going to be required is political will to look past those things when they happen,

to focus on the big picture and the large interests at stake.

Again, I feel optimistic, but there's no way to say for a 100% that we're through on the other side,

and into a new era that can't be reversed.

What sort of policies or actions can be put in place to ensure the longevity of this type of trilateral cooperation?

Yeah, I think the most important thing is to immediately begin implementing.

So, schedule that annual named exercise, do it now.

Operationalize that real-time information sharing on North Korean missiles, launch that dialogue on the Indo-Pacific.

One of the other initiatives was related to develop an assistance.

Find a project that the three countries can work on that's concrete and specific in Southeast Asia, or the Pacific Islands.

In other words, move out.

I think there's plenty that they've announced that can serve to institutionalize.

Now is the time to begin to act on it.

Christopher Johnstone, thank you so much for your time.

We really appreciate you joining us on the program.

Thank you very much.

This recent summit at Camp David has shifted the diplomatic landscape,

uniting the leaders of the United States, Japan, and South Korea.

It presents a promising yet still tricky path ahead

for tackling the shared security concerns around North Korea and China.

Join us next time as we take a Deeper Look at the US.' strategy in the Indo-Pacific.

I'm Del Irani, thanks for your company, I'll see you then!