What Will It Take to Stop Putin?: Andrei Kolesnikov / Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Hello, and welcome to DEEPER LOOK from New York.

I'm Del Irani, it's great to have your company.

It's been 22 years since Russian President Vladimir Putin came into power.

A former KGB agent and bureaucrat, he has carefully cultivated an image of strength and ambition...

and over the decades, maintained a strong grip on power.

But the recent invasion of Ukraine has been a great test for him.

As the military campaign drags on and harsh Western sanctions start to take effect, key questions are being asked...

How long can President Putin remain in power?

What will it take to make him stop this invasion?

And can the system of centralized rule he built outlast him?

Joining me once again, to talk more about this is Andrei Kolesnikov.

He's a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

He's a journalist and author whose research focuses on Russian politics, and shifts in Russian society.

He's based in Moscow, and he joins me once again.

Welcome back to the program, Andrei Kolesnikov.

Great to have you with us.

Thanks a lot, Del.

So, Andrei, what impact has the so-called "special operation," or the invasion of Ukraine, had on the thinking of Russian citizens and politicians?

Has it created a more united, or, divided Russia?

Divided for sure.

There's a strong, strong divide between people who are supporting the war, those who do not support the war.

It concerns the elites, it concerns average Russians.

And really Putin is not the president of the whole of Russia, of all Russians.

He's a... he prefers to be the president of only a part of Russia.

He repeats all the time, that we are united, that all patriotically-oriented people are supporting him, and supporting the idea of, let's say, a Russian world, Russia as such and such etc., etc.

And in that sense, people who are not supporting anything he does, they feel themselves like outcasts in the system.

Absolutely.

And... they are, let's say, kind of inferior citizens, not full-blooded citizens.

And... Putin uses such special words, which is typical for, not only authoritarian, but totalitarian regimes, as well.

I mean, the term "National Traitors."

You label the people who are against this unity as "national traitors."

And one more word, is the self-purification of the country, of the society.

It's a direct appeal for denunciations of different people who are not supporting the regime.

And I must say that the process has began because there are some cases of denunciations.

Students denounce their professors, and vice versa. And it's the same story in schools, even.

So, we have some features of a totalitarian regime in that sense.

What about the type of language or rhetoric that President Putin is using when he's trying to appeal to his supporters, and, when he's trying to kind of garner, and, you know, rally that support?

That this is the right thing, that we should get behind this invasion.

Rhetorically, he appeals to some terms or ideas from a Stalinist past.

People don't know that this is kind of a rent from this period of time.

But they accept the idea of this the "liberation of the Ukraine" rhetorics.

And at the same time, what is bad right now, this very language of hatred became much more, much more broad.

I mean, you can easily mention nuclear war, for instance.

It was absolutely impossible in the Soviet times, because there were rules.

You can't mention it, you understand the consequences.

And one more word, which is extremely important right now during the "special operation:" 'Nazi.' We are fighting with Nazi.

It is also historically explainable because the main enemy in Russian historical consciousness is German: Nazi army, German Nazi troops...

And because of that, they don't mention even fascists. They mention Nazis.

Despite the fact that they behave themselves like Nazis in Ukrainian cities.

So, as this is a defensive logic, we are not attacking anyone.

This is a defense; a defensive war.

It was a preemptive strike, a pre-emptive war in order to defend our brothers in the East, now in the south of Ukraine, and somewhere else on this plan.

So, people who are not agreeing with us, they are not with us, and they must be simply suppressed or ignored.

It's interesting, because, you know, we previously talked about Putin's very high approval rating something like 80%.

But I guess the question is, I mean, how much public support does President Putin really need to run the country?

I mean, does it even matter?

It matters.

We are talking about this political regime as about any normal democratic political system.

But, this is an authoritarian regime, at least. And Putin is an autocrat - again, delicately speaking about him.

And... he needs not simply support. He needs strong support, and he needs love of the mob, just like any dictator.

And he believes in it sincerely. He's here, at the very top, for 22 years.

And during these years without any kind of rotation, you will have a very crooked vision of the world, when you see the world through the lenses of information from secret police, let's say.

And here is a result of this kind of working with information.

Putin is smart.

I mean, he's challenged to think about something - to be a good tactician, but he's not a well-educated guy.

And this is also a problem for the governance of this country.

So, in that sense, he strongly needs this kind of support.

Tell us a little bit about Putin's inner circle.

I mean, what do we know about who actually has access to the Russian president, who could actually influence his thinking, or may be influencing his thinking?

You know, this is a frequently asked question, because everyone wants to know, who is near the ear, near the body of the president.

And the typical answer is, people like Bortnikov, the head of secret police - FSB; Patrushev, the Head of Security Council.

I think this is true, because behind the sun here, is this dangerous world ideology.

And the result of this ideology is this special operation.

And these people are overwhelmed by conspiracy theories, overwhelmed by the hatred towards the West.

By the hatred, even to the market economy, which is still saving Putin's regime, literally.

But if we are talking about people, let's say in the second circle around him - they are not so influential.

They are implementing his personal geopolitical and political decisions, not to mention the so-called economic and financial bloc.

These people are simply liquidating the consequences of geopolitical decisions.

But all of them are existing in the shadow of Putin. All of them are living in a kind of a submarine.

Right now, when they are all sanctioned by the West, and they don't have the exit from, any exits from the submarine, they have to be with Putin until the end of his political career.

And because of that, no signs of conspiracy, no signs of alternative thinking, and any kind of advice.

And no one knows what is in his head.

Even people from this inner circle, they don't know what he will invent tomorrow.

And what will be the goal for tomorrow.

You know, Andrei, there's been speculation about tensions between the Kremlin and President Putin, and he's had some displeasure with his staff.

How serious could it be if Putin was to lose the support of his security advisors, his staff, and, I mean, realistically, what's the likelihood of that happening?

I can't see any signs of possible alternative scenarios.

Here is a so-called the vertical of power. And he's kind of a Solis Rex, a lone king in this system.

And again, all those people are inside this submarine, not yellow, but let's say black, or something like that, with the letter "Z" on it.

So and, this elite is greedy, this elite is weak, the elite supports this, and they can't do anything alternative.

They can't create or initiate any kind of mild or strong conspiracy against Putin.

They can't change the country.

They are all beneficiaries of this, Putin's regime. They helped him.

They settled the time that compromises are in great need. Because, you know, everything is okay.

Yes, the regime is a little bit authoritarian, and a little bit corruptive.

But, look, we are living like in the West.

There is no need for democracy, but then found out that the lack of rotation leads to the special operation, and the end of prosperity in Russia.

How will this conflict with Ukraine impact the future of Russia?

How's it going to impact Russia's economy, its people, its politics moving forward?

This is not only an economic or political problem.

It is, I would say, it is an anthropological problem for Russia, for the future of Russia.

Because after this operation, after this, let's say worsening of spoiling of souls and brains of Russians, we will be in a period of decay - not only in an economic sense.

This is a problem of the quality of human capital, a lot of people will leave the country.

Those people who will stay here will be state dependent. So, this is a problem for years ahead.

At that very time, I will say that Ukraine in a peaceful time could be supported by the West, and it will be in a period of possible prosperity and reconstruction.

But at the end of the day, I think Russia, maybe with a little help of the civilized world, also will begin with a period of reconstruction.

But, this is not a question of Putin's period of political history.

I want to ask you, what are your hopes and dreams for your country?

You were born, you're raised in Russia, you're still very much in Moscow.

How would you like to see your country emerge after this, this difficult period?

There is one of the most popular questions here, in one of my broadcasting shows: Where will we meet in a year?

And this is such a provocative question because nobody can answer what will be with us in a year, where will be Russia, where will be Putin?

This is a question not of rationality, this is a question of belief or disbelief. It is a question of hopes.

I hope that we could stay here as we can, continue our job, partly or at a full scale.

But again, this is only as a question of hope, not more.

Well, Andrei, thank you so much for talking with us.

And, and I hope that your hopes and your dreams come true.

So, thank you so much for joining us on the program.

- Thanks a lot, Del, thanks.
- Thank you.

Now, according to the Russian Constitution, Vladimir Putin could remain the president of Russia until 2036.

But even if he holds on to power, the years ahead will be challenging.

Some experts predict the invasion of Ukraine could set Russia's economy back 30 years, and dramatically lower the standard of living for everyday Russians.

But these are just estimates from a conflict that is still playing out in real time.

And the longer the fighting goes on, the more painful that recovery could be.

I'm Del Irani, thanks for your company.

I'll see you next time on DEEPER LOOK from New York.