North Korea: Kim Jong Un's Deepening Radicalism

Last November, North Korea released a series of photos that raised eyebrows across the globe.

In this military group photo with a Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile, front and center we see "supreme leader" Kim Jong Un, shown accompanied by his young daughter.

The symbolic move appears to reinforce the narrative of the country's nuclear missile program being for the security of its future generations.

Over a decade has passed since Kim Jong Un took over at the helm of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

"All hail our great revolutionary arsenal!"

In 2022, Pyongyang launched a record number of missiles, doubling down on its hardline stance.

Over recent years, as the world scrambled to contain the Covid-19 pandemic, North Korea closed its borders, keeping its moves deeply shrouded in secrecy.

But what exactly has the reclusive nation been up to in that time?

We conducted extensive interviews with North Korea experts, from military officials and former diplomats, to weapons specialists.

The picture that emerges is of a regime becoming ever more radicalized.

"We're trying to geolocate one of the missile tests."

On the military front, Pyongyang has been developing a wide variety of both short and long range missiles, many already well into their operational phase.

"The quality of North Korea's missiles improved dramatically."

"North Korea has shifted from developing those missiles to the deploying them."

Another insight we gleaned is into the regime's tightening controls domestically.

We managed to obtain some 4,000 pages of internal North Korean documents.

Using pandemic-control as a pretext, Pyongyang has stepped up public surveillance, stiffening its stranglehold on ordinary people's lives.

"Pyongyang took advantage of the pandemic
to increase its controls over the population."

"In that sense, COVID has worked in the regime's favor."

Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine has also given Pyongyang cover to escalate its efforts to acquire foreign currency.

Amid deepening divisions in the international community, suspicions are emerging that North Korea is evading UN economic sanctions and finding ways to raise capital.

"The UN Security Council keeps failing to take
a firm stance against North Korea."

"The situation is setting precedents for the country's
sanctions violations to go unpunished."

With the world preoccupied with pandemic recovery and the war in Ukraine, Kim Jong Un has seized the moment to take his hardline policies to new levels.

We turn our lens on the troubling reality of his ever-more radicalized regime.

Kim Jong Un celebrates 10 years as "supreme leader" of communist North Korea.

At the military parade marking the occasion, Kim declared he'd further accelerate the country's development of missiles and nuclear weapons.

"We must get stronger at a speed
faster than ever before."

"We will take all measures to further bolster
and develop our nuclear arsenal at full pace."

Through the UN, the international community has imposed heavy sanctions on North Korea in an effort to stem its nuclear and missile development programs.

Yet despite punishing global pressure, the isolated state has continued to launch missiles with an unnerving and ever-increasing frequency.

But just how far has North Korea's military development progressed in recent years?

Jeffrey Lewis is a long-time researcher and seasoned expert on North Korea's military arsenal.

Employing satellite imagery and other available data, Lewis has analyzed the launch sites and specific features of the country's various missiles.

"We are all trying to geolocate one of the missile tests."

"We can then look at satellite imagery and show that potentially that there were no vehicles and other activity at that location."

Lewis's work has revealed a near-complete picture of North Korea's missile program.

In 2012, when Kim Jong Un officially took power, missiles were being launched from only a select few testing sites.

Under the new leader's watch, this was expanded to include more than 30 different locations, many in coastal and mountainous regions.

Mobile missile launchers mounted on railroad cars and submarines have appeared too.

For Lewis, the sheer variety of missiles now being fired is also particularly striking.

Last year's additions include a hypersonic missile, the term used to describe a weapon exceeding speeds of Mach 5, making it virtually impossible to intercept.

Other newcomers include the "Hwasong-17," an intercontinental ballistic missile or "ICBM" with a range covering the entire United States.

As well as a new tactical guided missile, reported to fly on an irregular trajectory at low altitudes, helping it evade interception.

All in all North Korea fired more than 90 missiles in 2022, comprising at least 10 different missile types.

Lewis's assessment is that by diversifying missile types and launch sites, Pyongyang is building readiness to respond to all manner of enemy attack.

"North Korea has shifted from developing these missiles to deploying them."

"For Kim Jong Un, he needs to spread his missile force across many different kinds of delivery so that he is assured he can get in that first killing blow."

Most troubling however is the regime's ever-increasing activity in advancing its nuclear capabilities.

"Thirty-Eight North" is a US-based research program that has been monitoring Yongbyon and other nuclear facilities in North Korea for many years.

"We have definitely seen activity pick up at Yongbyon."

"North Korea's first hydrogen bomb test
has been a success!"

"Hooray!"

North Korea has so far conducted six nuclear tests in its defiant pursuit of a nuclear arsenal.

North Korea's last nuclear test was conducted in 2017, after which it declared it had achieved nuclear-strike capability.

While no tests have been carried out since, 38 North has confirmed the country's nuclear program is still progressing.

It reports that the test facility in Yongbyon, which has been central to the country's nuclear program, has been back in operation since the summer of 2021.

North Korean engineers are believed to be using the reactor at Yongbyon to produce weapons-grade plutonium.

"What we do see is this water discharge over here, and that's from the cooling water system."

Cooling water from the reactor is being discharged into a river running adjacent to the facility.

The white color in the satellite image shows the splash as cooling water enters the river.

"So when we see that water discharge is a good indication that the reactor is running."

"So they restarted this about last year, late about summer of last year."

"And we've seen it running pretty consistently since then."

38 North's analysts believe preparations are now steadily underway for a seventh nuclear test.

"So the reactor, when it's running at full capacity, can produce about six kilograms of plutonium per year."

"So depending on how much they're using per bomb, that could be about 1 to 2 bombs worth."

"We're pretty sure they will that they're planning to do more nuclear weapons tests in the future, given the goals that they have for their program."

What are the full implications of North Korea's rapid missile diversification and the resumption of its nuclear program?

In January 2021, the regime unveiled a five-year plan for the development of defense science and weapons systems.

Among the targets disclosed, the plan details that by 2025 the country will successfully develop a smaller, lighter nuclear warhead

that can be loaded onto any type of missile.

Lee Sangmin analyses North Korea's military capabilities at a research institute under the South Korean Ministry of Defense.

He explains that what he's most concerned about is the North's development of tactical nuclear weapons.

Tactical nuclear weapons fit a nuclear warhead to a variety of delivery mechanisms, such as short-range ballistic missiles, to wage much more localized attacks.

"Tactical nuclear weapons are intended for use against
enemy bases and other military targets in war."

In fact, North Korea claims that the seven missile launch tests that took place in September and October 2022 were exercises

that specifically assumed the use of this type of weapon.

Lee Sangmin has analyzed Pyongyang's intentions behind the launches, extrapolating from the flight distance of each missile.

"A range of some 600 kilometers covers locations
such as Busan."

The first of these missiles traveled around 600 kilometers.

Such a range would cover the port city of Busan, a potential landing point for US support forces.

Several other missiles tested flew in the 350 to 360 kilometer range, far enough to be able to strike US and South Korean military command headquarters and a key strategic airbase.

"Apparently, the North's aim is not actually
to attack South Korea's big cities, but rather to cripple the strength
of its air force and navy."

"The North cannot match the South and the US
in conventional weapons."

"So Pyongyang instead intends to use tactical
nuclear weapons as a warning and a deterrent."

"North Korea's nuclear capabilities have expanded
dramatically under Kim Jong Un."

When and how exactly did Kim Jong Un manage to orchestrate such an impressive military buildup?

In 2011, the regime's reins fell to Kim Jong Un following the sudden death of his father, Kim Jong Il.

Early in office, he adopted a two-pronged strategy termed "Byungjin" or "parallel development": pursuing nuclear weapons capability and economic development in tandem.

"We should ignite the flames of a new
industrial revolution, and embark on the path of building
an economic powerhouse."

We spoke with someone who had the chance to meet Kim Jong Un in person not long after he came to power.

Joseph Terwilliger is an American scholar and researcher on North Korean culture.

"This is actually a news video of our meeting with Kim Jong Un."

In 2013, he met Kim Jong Un twice in his role as an interpreter for former professional basketball player Dennis Rodman.

He was even invited to the leader's guest house.

"You know, we were in his guest house."

"We went on his yacht, we went jet skiing with them, racing the jet skis."

"He was a kid."

"You know, he played basketball, drove the boat, went jet skiing."

"He's into speed."

"You know, he likes his jet ski was more powerful than ours."

"They want more engagement with the world, at least, you know, in the ability to trade and so forth and do things."

"He wanted a better life for his people, you know?"

"Certainly his team has relaxed these things and tried to, you know, do something to make the economy better."

"What I think is especially interesting is when we got back, you know, Kim Jong Un said, ‘Here's my phone number.'" "Tell Obama I want him to call me, blah, blah, blah.'"

"And they wanted no part of it."

"They just blew us off."

"They just weren't interested."

Kim Jong Un promoted the development of housing projects and entertainment facilities such as amusement parks.

He also pushed forward economic reforms to boost workers' motivation through measures such as giving greater leeway to state-run companies.

What then was the precise turning point for Kim to start prioritizing military expansion?

We conducted an in-depth analysis to find out.

We fed all of the leader's speeches and public statements made over the past decade, some 15,000 in all, into an AI algorithm.

From factors such as the frequency of phrases used and connections between words, the system was able to map his interests and values over time.

Following extensive profiling, certain key, characteristic words and phrases began to emerge.

They include "party central," which apparently refers to Kim Jong Un himself, and "challenges," used to indicate political or economic issues.

The one word whose usage has changed most significantly over the past 10 years is state, referring to North Korea itself.

Early on in his rule, Kim would often use the word together with vocabulary related to economic policy, such as "construction" or "development."

But since around 2019, it has been more frequently used alongside words such as military, safety and security.

What prompted the shift?

The watershed moment turned out to be the US-North Korea Summit meetings, held three times in all between Kim Jong Un and then-US President, Donald Trump.

At the meetings, Trump sought North Korea's denuclearization, while Kim demanded the lifting of sanctions, together with security guarantees.

"The world will witness a significant change."

"I thank President Trump for his efforts
to realize this meeting."

Someone with a unique insight into the North Korean leader's approach at the time is Stephen Biegun, a former senior US diplomat who worked behind the scenes at the summit meetings.

"This is the photograph of my first meeting in which Kim came to New York and come again October, 2018."

"He strikes me as a very relaxed and very confident leader."

"Now, he's actually a good conversationalist."

"He has a sense of humor."

"I think he wanted to change the course of his country and our demand was that that included the denuclearization of North Korea."

In return for easing sanctions and other concessions, the US demanded North Korea declare a timetable

to dismantle all of its nuclear arms development programs and facilities.

The proposal was modeled in part after the approach that eventually led Libya into giving up its nuclear development program.

A former North Korean diplomat testifies the Libya connection seriously alarmed Kim.

Ryu Hyun-woo was then North Korea's acting ambassador to Kuwait.

Ryu says he received orders from Pyongyang to take indepth look into the approach with Libya.

"North Korean diplomats in the Middle East
all received the same instruction."

"We were told to gather information and
report back on the Libyan model."

"The model entailed getting economic sanctions
lifted and security guarantees for the regime, all in exchange for denuclearization."

"But Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, who agreed
to the deal, was eventually killed."

"We researched the full story and
reported it to Pyongyang."

At the summit meetings, Kim would only go as far as agreeing to close nuclear facilities in Yongbyon.

The US maintained that was not enough.

The two sides ended up talking at cross-purposes.

"When Kim Jong Un offered to close Yongbyon, he did not offer to give up his nuclear weapons program."

"And we knew that. And he knew that. And he knew."

"President Trump several times posted his questions to Chairman Kim offer him an opportunity to adjust his position and Chairman Kim simply repeated robotically the offer

that he had put on the table almost as if it had been memorized."

"If I had to guess his thinking, he wasn't ready to give up that nuclear weapons at the beginning."

As it became clear the impasse was unresolvable, negotiations eventually broke down.

Ryu Hyun-woo views this pivotal moment in 2019 as the key trigger for the communist leader to decide to accelerate his nuclear and missile development programs.

"Kim Jong Un said that the standoff with the
United States had become protracted."

"He believed he needed a change in strategy,
so he stepped up military development."

"There was no option left for North Korea
other than the nuclear deterrent path."

Kim Jong Un ramped up military spending following the breakdown of the summit.

We now know that he also began to tighten controls domestically.

In the year following the final summit meeting, the Covid-19 pandemic gripped the globe.

North Korea responded by closing its borders, leaving its domestic situation even more deeply concealed than usual.

Hoping to glean an insight into what was really happening inside the country during this period, we went to meet a man claiming to hold recently issued official documents.

Our informant is a North Korean defector with hopes for the eventual democratization of his homeland.

"I received all these by email."

He handed over a memory stick containing documents he claims to have obtained from informants in North Korea and China.

"They shed light on secret activities carried out
by the regime, and on its leadership's thinking."

The documents, totaling some 4,000 pages, were published between 2018 and 2022.

They are said to originate from the Organization and Guidance Department of the Workers' Party of Korea, its publishing house, and the Ministry of State Security, the country's secret police.

Some were produced to explain challenges facing the country to senior officials, and others to inform the public of the regime's policies.

We asked Sakai Takashi, an expert on North Korea who previously worked for Japan's Public Security Intelligence Agency, to help us analyze the materials.

Keio University Professor, Isozaki Atsuhito, who specializes in North Korean politics, also gave us his assessment.

"This is a textbook example of the format used by the
Workers' Party publishing house."

"Judging by their appearance, there's no question
as to their authenticity."

"It's surprising some of them are from this year,
given the country's closed borders."

"I'm sure they contain a lot of useful information."

A report from a rural region describes the plight of its residents and their frustrations amid the pandemic.

Covid has made life even more difficult.

Stocks of some drugs ran out, leaving us with no access.

We also found evidence that authorities were tightening their grip on the population, using the pandemic as a pretext.

The Ministry of Social Security, which plays a role similar to the police in other countries, issued this document in November 2021.

Reporting systems, self-defense security protocols, and crowd-monitoring systems all need to be bolstered.

That will enable us to ensure illegal border crossings, smuggling, and use of cell phones are promptly reported to the relevant authorities.

There was also a specific warning to the public that anyone approaching the border would be shot on sight.

This footage of North Korea during the pandemic was shot from the Chinese side of the border.

A South Korean group filmed the area over a period of more than six months starting in July 2021.

Female Korean People's Army soldiers wearing face masks are putting up a barbed wire fence along the border.

The images of border fortification further suggest a stepping-up of control by authorities.

"The pandemic has enabled North Korean authorities
to reinforce their grip on the populace, especially in relation to contact and
exchanges with the outside world."

"In that sense, COVID has worked in the regime's favor."

The documents we obtained also shed light on a new guiding principle Kim Jong Un has come up with to support his tightening controls.

His "Our Country First" policy explains to the public that the regime's growing power, including its military might, has heightened its position in the international arena.

The era of ‘Our Country First' has arrived following our death-defying struggle to increase our power and heighten our nation's prestige and position.

"The regime is fanning nationalism.
They tell people struggling in poverty that their country is a military power with
world-class nuclear missiles,

and that it's all thanks to Chairman Kim Jong Un."

"It's to emphasize that they have such a
superb, young leader."

The big question is how Kim Jong Un's message of "Our Country First" has been received by the public.

We obtained the testimony of a man who defected from North Korea in 2019.

"Our lives became ever more difficult."

"We would go to the river and pan for gold."

"We'd bring it to the market when we'd collected
enough to buy us a kilo of corn."

"That's how we fed ourselves."

"I knew that North Korea was poorer than other nations, but I believed that ours was a proud country."

"It was developing nuclear weapons
and had intercontinental ballistic missiles."

"We were made to believe that
such things were giving us power."

But not everyone was convinced.

"They gave us a lecture on the
Our Country First" policy."

"They told us our country was the best in the world
and that we shouldn't admire other nations."

"We had no option but to nod in agreement."

"We were not allowed to speak freely.
All our activities were reported to the authorities."

"I was always looking over my shoulder
when I went outside."

North Korea's actions became even bolder last year, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine dramatically shifted the international status quo.

Kim Jong Un publicly supports Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has faced growing international condemnation.

The UN Security Council has in the past always acted decisively on North Korea's nuclear ambitions, but last year saw an unprecedented break with convention.

Both Russia and China vetoed a resolution, put forward by the US and other countries, to step up sanctions on North Korea.

"Ramping up pressure through sanctions
is not only ineffective but also inhumane."

It marked the first time ever that UN sanctions on North Korea had been vetoed.

Andrei Lankov is well versed in relations between Russia and North Korea.

He says that Kim Jong Un has been able to strengthen his hardline stance thanks to support from nations generally considered to be authoritarian, such as Russia and China.

"The rift between Russia and the US
serves Kim well."

"He can leverage that friction between
world powers to his advantage.

"The greatest benefit for Kim is that
the united front that Russia, China and...

the US once presented has now been destroyed."

"He must be extremely happy."

There are reports about workers being dispatched from North Korea to Donetsk, a province in eastern Ukraine Russia claims to have annexed.

"Construction workers from North Korea are highly
skilled and disciplined. They're wonderful."

"Talks are underway to bring in labor from
North Korea and elsewhere for reconstruction."

The US State Department is keeping a close eye on North Korea's moves after it learned in November that the country has been supplying weapons to Russia.

"The DPRK is covertly supplying Russia's war in Ukraine with a significant number of artillery shells, while obfuscating the real destination of the arms shipments by trying to make it appear

as though they are being sent to countries in the Middle East or North Africa."

The border between North Korea and Russia has officially been closed for the past two years due to the pandemic.

This is a satellite image of the border, taken in November last year.

It shows a train on a railway on the North Korean side.

But in this image taken two and a half hours later, the same train can now be seen in Russia.

However North Korea has flatly denied sending weapons to Russia.

It has also been revealed that North Korea is illegally raising funds for its nuclear and missile development programs through arms sales conducted right across the globe.

A report released by a US thinktank in 2021 concludes that North Korea has been doing business, including the sale of weapons, in 38 of the 54 countries in Africa.

"There's a top-loading machine gun that only North Korea produces, you'll find light machine gun you'll find in Africa."

"The way the North Korean operate here is they don't just turn over a plants."

"These plants assemble kits produced in North Korea."

"So it's set up in a way that country becomes dependent upon North Korea."

"That way the North Koreans guarantee a continuous stream of income for the...

the kits that are used to assemble the weapons."

"So it's a rather clever strategy."

Our own research suggests North Korea may also be evading sanctions through clandestine trade with Chinese firms.

The insight emerged through detailed analysis tracking the movements of North Korean ships.

Sea-faring vessels above a certain size are equipped with an "automatic identification system" or AIS transceiver, which automatically transmits data such as speed and location.

The signals reach other ships either directly or via satellite or shore-based relay stations, and are used mainly to avoid accidents such as collisions.

We were able to obtain AIS data from around 300 North Korean ships, including cargo vessels and tankers.

The dots on the map show when and where the signals were emitted.

We've connected the dots to identify the course taken by each vessel.

In spite of the heavy sanctions, we discovered a surprising number of ships travelling to and from North Korea.

Numerous vessels departed from North Korea's largest port, Nampo, and headed for China.

We were able to establish they made stops at at least 22 separate Chinese ports.

Longkou Port in Shandong Province was the most frequently visited by North Korean ships last year.

But exactly what kind of cargo might they have been carrying?

To find out, we first cross-checked all North Korean vessels that entered the port.

One, a cargo ship named the "Ko San," left Nampo in North Korea on August 24th, and arrived at Longkou on September 8th.

A satellite image taken immediately after its arrival captured a ship believed to be the Ko San, but it's impossible to clearly identify its cargo.

The following day, the top of the ship had turned black however, suggesting that its cargo hatch covers had been opened.

Three days later, the dockside had turned black, suggesting that something black in color might have been unloaded from the ship.

We asked Takeuchi Maiko, who until 2021 served as a member of a UN Security Council Panel of Experts on North Korea,

to help us interpret the images.

"We see these black squares on the Ko San."

"Its hatch covers are open, revealing its cargo."

"Given the color and the surrounding context,
it's possible the ship was carrying coal."

"The vessel might have been involved
in North Korea's illegal exports of coal."

The United Nations banned North Korea from exporting coal in 2017.

If the country is indeed trading coal, it would constitute a serious sanctions violation.

We contacted about a dozen coal distributors in China.

One of them admitted to handling North Korean coal.

"You handle North Korean coal, right?"

"Yes, we do."

"When a ship arrives from North Korea carrying
coal, we split the cargo with other distributors."

"We just had one come in recently."

- Isn't it against the law?
- "Not at all."

"If someone wants to buy North Korean coal,
we sell it and make money, that's all."

But is the Chinese government itself actually aware of this covert trade in coal?

China's foreign ministry assured us that the country is faithfully implementing UN sanctions, and its businesses are obliged to conduct trade in accordance with laws and regulations.

Takeuchi feels a deep sense of crisis regarding the emasculation of UN sanctions against North Korea.

"The UN Security Council is unable to
stand firm against North Korea."

"That's providing the regime with ample
opportunity to improve its military technology."

"The UN Security Council has also allowed
sanctions violations to go unchecked."

"Sanctions against North Korea have never been
this ineffective in their history."

Amid the international community's failure to put up a united front, US President Joe Biden met his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on November 14th.

Biden expressed concerns about further escalation of North Korea's provocative actions.

He reminded Xi that it was in their mutual interest to urge the international community to act responsibly.

Just four days later though...

"North Korea launched what's believed to be
an intercontinental ballistic missile today."

"Attention is focused on the distance it flew
and whether the launch was a success."

North Korea launched a Hwasong-17 missile to protest the latest joint military drills between the US and South Korea.

At the US air base of Osan in South Korea, the commander and his officers discuss the implications.

"We got another reminder of that today."

"And that continues to grow."

"And we continue to see them become more capable with every test."

"Our job is just to be ready for anything."

The US air force has F-16 fighter jets and other attack aircraft stationed at the base.

As North Korea continues to launch missiles and conduct aerial firing drills, the US is holding twice-daily flight training sessions.

We spoke to the man in charge of the 8,000 US airmen and women stationed in South Korea.

"I think tensions have definitely risen in the area."

"Unprecedented amount of provocation and action have taken place this year, and that's quite disturbing."

"The US, the ROK and Japan, as an alliance, we stand ready each and every day for any sort of provocation."

"Our goal here is to always, you know, number one, just keep the armistice in place."

"And so the idea behind it is to deter any sort of action."

"What's the red line of the DPRK missile test?"

"For security reasons, I can't talk about any sort of a red line."

"And I have no idea of what that red line would be for North Korea."

"But we stand ready to fight tonight."

How can the international community best deal with North Korea?

Stephen Biegun, who represented the US government in direct negotiations with North Korea, believes we should try to reopen a dialogue while maintaining pressure on the country.

"We think we have to play the long game."

"We have to keep a deterrent."

"The North Korea will not be permitted to use nuclear weapons against South Korea or anybody else."

"A robust defense on the Korean peninsula, which United States has."

"And just sustained pressure on the North Korean regime."

"Absence of communication is a huge challenge, and that's what's frustrating efforts by the Biden administration today, ultimately, it's not that they're not interested in having a conversation with North Korea."

"The North Koreans won't answer the phone."

"So establishing sustained communications as a antecedent to any further diplomacy I think is critically important."

Park Jie-won is a former head of South Korea's National Intelligence Service.

He emphasizes that the cooperation of China, North Korea's main backer, is key to being able to rein in the regime's actions.

"The North ignores China when it's making progress
in its talks with the US, but it always turns to China when talks stall."

"To be sure, though, China is not impressed
with North Korea's nuclear ambitions."

"Currently, there may be friction between the US
and China, but President Biden should persuade President Xi
to work together and seek a solution."

"China's involvement is essential to putting an end to
North Korea's missile provocations and nuclear tests."

Kim Jong Un is expected to remain in power for decades to come.

He has stressed that he will never give up his nuclear and missile development programs.

"We won't abandon nuclear weapons."

"With our irreversible resolve, there is no need
to even discuss denuclearization."

The Korean War, which began some 73 years ago, never officially ended, and was merely frozen in an armistice.

The conflict still has the potential to jeopardize security in East Asia and beyond.

North Korea's radicalization has accelerated under Kim Jong Un's leadership, and in the absence of a viable solution from the international community.

How can a politically divided world deal effectively with the very real dangers posed by one rogue nation's escalating nuclear threats?