Xi Jinping's Vision for China's Next Five Years: Daniel Russel / Vice President, Asia Society Policy Institute

Hello and welcome to DEEPER LOOK from New York.

I'm Del Irani, it's great to have your company.

China has entered a new era, under an ambitious leader.

President Xi Jinping has secured a historic third term as head of the ruling Communist Party...

It is a break with tradition and consolidates Mr. Xi's position as the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong.

Prior to the announcement, in the National Congress of the Communist Party, Mr. Xi expressed his commitment of building China into what he calls a

"great modern socialist country."

So what exactly is President Xi's vision for China?

And how does he plan to realize this vision while dealing with pressing issues, such as a Covid-damaged economy?

Joining me now to talk more about this is Daniel Russel.

He served as a senior US diplomat, and most recently, as the Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs.

He also previously served at the White House, as special assistant to President Obama for Asian affairs.

Currently, he is the Vice President at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

And he joins me now.

Welcome to the program.

Mr. Russel, great to have you with us.

Thanks, Del.

I'm very happy to join you.

So, Mr. Russel, as I just mentioned, President Xi has now confirmed his third term as Party General Secretary.

Can you explain to us just how significant is this?

Well, look, it's very significant.

Over the last 10 years through two terms, Xi Jinping consolidated power, far more dramatically than, I think, any analyst anticipated and certainly than his two predecessors had.

So, first and foremost, I think the decision to depart with the recent two term limit, as well as his decision not to name, his own successor, are quite significant, quite important.

We see now a, not just a one-party system, but really a one-man system in control of that one party.

And we see that in the personnel - personnel and authoritarian system is always very important.

Coming out of the party congress, the lineup of the members of what's called the Central Committee 200 or so top officials in the party,

the Politburo, that 25 top leaders, the Standing Committee, that seven top leaders, these are all loyalists, these are all Xi Jinping's people.

And I think what it shows us is that the criteria for promotion in 2022 wasn't expertise, it was loyalty.

Do you think that China is going to become more authoritarian, more dictatorial?

I mean, is this a country where power is going to be concentrated, for example, like what we're seeing in Russia with President Putin?

The Chinese system is quite different than the Russian and Xi Jinping is different in many respects, than Putin.

So, I don't think that's really a good model.

We're going to see more dictatorship, authoritarianism with Chinese characteristics.

So, we really have to kind of analyze China as it is.

I don't want to overstate the concentration of power observation in the sense that Xi Jinping didn't become leader by accident.

The party back in 2010, 2011 was worried about factionalism, about the inefficiency of collective leadership.

They had just watched the Arab Spring uprisings that unseated a lot of one-party systems, the Baathist parties, they wanted to prevent that.

Now, I think they got more than they bargained for.

I guess, you know, given the fact that he does have this huge amount of power now in China, many people are wondering, what is President Xi going to do?

What is his vision for China?

I think the answer is hiding in plain sight.

Xi Jinping has, and the party has, again and again in speeches, in documents, described the objective of the Chinese Communist Party,

which really is to shape the global governance system in a way that allows Chinese socialism, the Chinese Communist Party system to continue and to flourish.

They're, first and foremost, about protecting their own interests, and their own power.

There are a number of specific domestic agendas, including narrowing the wealth gap, etc.

But I think they all ultimately coalesce around this principle that Chinese greatness must be demonstrated.

China's place as a world leader has to become uncontested, and throughout the absolute control of China's Communist Party, must continue and be bolstered.

That's what Xi Jinping is really all about.

Mr. Russel, I know you had the opportunity to meet Mr. Xi Jinping.

You traveled to China with then Vice President Biden.

Xi Jinping was, of course vice president of China at that time.

Tell us a little bit about what sense did you get from him?

Did you sense his ambitions?

Did you sense this will to become the leader?

Well, I did not, when I first met him back in 2011, when he was vice president and had the luxury,

the unique opportunity of sitting in on the meetings that then Vice President Biden had with him, and the two men had very deep and extensive conversations.

I felt like I learned a lot about him, his intelligence, his skill as a politician, his curiosity about the world etc.

It was clear then that he was, you know, a determined Chinese Nationalist and certainly a believer in the necessity of the Chinese Communist Party having uncontested rule.

But I didn't even begin to glean the ambition that he would have either in terms of consolidating power,

strengthening the authority of the party to the extent that he has in terms of tremendous social control and direct state intervention, not just oversight of the private sector and so on.

And I also, although I clearly heard and understood that he placed great importance on ideology, Marxist-Leninism with Chinese characteristics.

I had no idea the extent to which he would pursue an ideological agenda, as we're seeing now.

Even with something like the COVID, the zero COVID policy, or his crackdown on tech companies in China, even at the expense of China's economy,

even at the expense of the kind of economic growth that has formed the basis of the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party over the last seven decades.

What strategies do you think he's going to deploy to try and help bring Chinese economic growth back?

And, you know, how are these measures sort of different to what other countries around the world, free market economies are doing when it comes to reviving economies post COVID?

Look, I mean, the fundamental difference is state capitalism in China.

And I think, frankly, the number one change coming out of the 20th Party Congress is the departure of so many officials who have real economic expertise.

You know, the principal economic adviser to Xi Jinping, Liu He, was expected to leave.

Wang Yang, the former Vice Premier, who has a tremendous amount of economic experience is clearly out.

The incoming people, as I said, seem to have been selected for their loyalty, for their political faithfulness, not for their economic expertise.

The new number two, Li Qiang, the former or the party secretary from Shanghai is going to be the prime minister without ever having been the Vice Premier,

never having run the central economy.

And I think his enforcement of very draconian zero-COVID policy in Shanghai that caused great economic damage to China

are not exactly a good advertisement for his economic skills.

So, the party report to the Congress conveys that we should expect no change to China's zero-COVID policy, no change to the failed policies in China's property and real estate sector.

President Xi Jinping really standing strong on this zero-COVID policy, how did the Chinese people feel about Xi's leadership?

I mean, what's been the response to his leadership style?

Well, there's no reliable analysis.

There's no independent polling in China, and so on.

There's a lot of constraints against accessing individual Chinese and it's particularly hard to gauge public opinion in China,

given the intense propaganda, the censorship, the ideological pressure.

The Chinese Communist Party, Del, is in the business of telling the people what they think, telling the people what they support.

Not asking them, right?

And Xi Jinping is playing up national pride.

He's also playing up the fear of external enemies to bolster support for the party.

That said, we definitely know that there is a backlash within China against the effects of the zero-COVID policy.

The lockdowns, not only have they damaged the economy, and not only that they seriously inconvenienced people.

But they brought back bad memories of, you know, the old Maoist days where every apartment block,

every neighborhood had a Communist Party cell with people supervising, managing, intruding.

In implementing this kind of mass lockdown campaign, people's privacy and people's lives in China were badly, negatively affected.

How important is what is determined in this Chinese Party Congress?

Not just the future of China, but I guess, the impact this could have on the Asia-Pacific region and the rest of the world?

Well, it's hugely important because of China's importance, China's effect.

And there is every reason to think that instead of dialing down the more assertive policies that Xi Jinping and China have pursued, particularly in the last part of years.

Whether it's in the East China Sea, challenging Japan, or whether it's in the South China Sea, whether it's the crackdown in Hong Kong and so on, the threats against Taiwan.

That the assertive posture that China has taken, is not going to ameliorate, not going to recede.

Instead of dialing things down, Xi Jinping is doubling down on the policies that he's pursued.

So, I think the region should brace for a challenging period ahead.

Mr. Russel, thank you so much for your time.

My pleasure, Del.

Over the last ten years, during President Xi's two terms as leader, China's GDP and military spending has doubled.

Many believe China's leadership would like to establish themselves as a superpower.

So what impact will China's rise and diplomatic efforts have on Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world?

Join us next time, as we continue our conversation with Daniel Russel and dive deeper into these issues.

I'm Del Irani, thanks for your company.

I'll see you next time!