Responding to Rising Uncertainty over Taiwan: Bonnie Glaser / Director of Asia Program, German Marshall Fund of the US

Hello and welcome to DEEPER LOOK from New York.

I'm Del Irani, it's great to have your company.

On August 2nd this year, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi - who, by law, is the second in line to succeed the US President, after the Vice President - visited Tawain.

It was the first visit by the US House speaker to Tawain in 25 years - and it was met with great anger, provoking a harsh response from China.

China stepped up pressure on Taiwan, carrying out unprecedented military exercises.

This included surrounding the island on all sides, and firing ballistic missiles over it for the first time.

So what impact will this have on tensions in the Asia-Pacific region?

And how should the United States and its Asia-Pacific allies deal with this situation?

Joining me now to talk more about this is Bonnie Glaser.

She's a director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

She is an expert on Chinese policy, and served as a consultant for various US government offices, including the Department of Defense and State.

And she joins me now.

Welcome to the program, Bonnie Glaser.

Great to have you with us.

Thank you so much for having me.

So, as an expert, who's been watching China for a long time, how concerned are you about the current situation over Taiwan?

Well, I am concerned about the trends that are underway, really on all three sides.

In China, there is growing concern about the direction of what they see as movements toward Taiwan independence, which I don't share.

But that is their concern.

And they see that the United States is strengthening ties with Taiwan.

Of course, we had the recent visit by Speaker Nancy Pelosi, to Taiwan, just one example.

And then, of course, there are tendencies, also trajectories in Taiwan's policy that are going to feed into I think growing tensions going forward.

We have elections and, of course, we have public opinion polls that show that fewer and fewer people support reunification.

And so, all of these tendencies, that I think are going to drive tensions further up and going forward.

Can you explain to us why was US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit?

Why did anger China so much?

And to what extent was this something that the Biden administration was supportive of, or was this considered a private visit?

There had not been a visit by the Speaker of the House of Representatives to Taiwan in 25 years.

And the last time it was Newt Gingrich, he was from a different political party than the ruling party.

He was a Republican, and the Chinese latched on to that difference.

They felt the fact that Speaker Pelosi was a Democrat, meant that it was connected to the Biden administration, and I think that the Chinese really know that we have a separation of powers in the United States,

we have co-equal branches of government.

But yet they didn't really want to accept the fact that President Biden could not take actions to prevent Speaker Pelosi from going to Taiwan.

They felt that he could in fact, ask her not to go.

And apparently, according to reporting, President Biden chose to not even have a conversation with Speaker Pelosi.

So, I think the Chinese really backed themselves into a corner, they work themselves into a frenzy, and then they had to show to their own people, as well as to Taiwan and the United States,

that they strongly objected to this visit.

Because it's part of this overall trend of what they see as a, what they call a "hollowing out" of the US One-China policy

and a strengthening of the overall US Taiwan relationship.

In a sense, what they are trying to do is to reestablish their red lines, to warn the United States and Taiwan not to go too far.

They're not looking for an excuse to invade.

They are trying to deter further actions by the United States and Taiwan, what they call "salami slicing" the One-China policy.

And they see things going in a very negative direction that they of course, are unable to influence.

And not only is the United States taking more actions to support Taiwan, but so many other countries around the world now also are doing so.

And that, I think, Beijing did not expect.

In earlier administrations we didn't hear much said by other countries in the Indo Pacific or Europe, in support of the preservation of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.

But now we hear that regularly.

Just a little bit more about, I guess, the military exercises.

Amidst all of this, for the first time Chinese ballistic missiles landed in Japan's exclusive economic zone.

To what extent...what do you think was behind China's decision to get, you know, Japan involved in this and to what extent has this made tensions in the region far worse?

China has long factored in the likelihood that the United States would come to Taiwan's defense if China attack Taiwan.

They have never been quite certain about Japan.

They know Japan has deep interests in Taiwan.

But it is only been in the last few years that we have heard very senior officials in Japan.

Talk about the need to ensure that Taiwan's security is protected.

And Japan and the United States I think, have been working together in more concrete ways than we did previously, actually talking about contingencies, ways that our two countries could work together to deter China,

but also to respond in the event that China uses force against Taiwan.

And I think that this has really angered Beijing.

It's a clear warning to Japan to not get involved, not interfere with China's internal Affairs, to not support Taiwan, not work with the United States to protect Taiwan.

They, I think, just want Japan to recognize that the consequences would be significant for Japan, to try and intimidate Japan.

Bonnie Glaser, I mean, I guess just to backtrack a little bit, if you can just put this all-in context for us.

What is China's view about Taiwan?

Well, China has always seen Taiwan as part of China, and has said that this is one country and has been for 1000s of years.

But Taiwan has never been under the control of the People's Republic of China.

The new, I think, layer of this dispute is Xi Jinping coming to power in China in 2012.

I think that he has been more ambitious.

Not only, of course, in his policies toward Taiwan, but also toward Japan and India, and in the South China Sea.

He has been less risk-averse than previous leaders in China.

And he said, in fact, in 2017, at the 19th Party Congress that reunification is a requirement for the Chinese dream of national rejuvenation.

And the target date for that is the middle of the century.

It's the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China.

So, actually not that far away.

And so, people think maybe, as part of his legacy, Xi Jinping may want to either actually achieve for unification or make significant progress toward returning Taiwan to the motherland.

And that has really fed tensions, I think, between the two sides of the strait.

So, Bonnie Glaser, from a US perspective, if you're a US policymaker right now, and you're watching how China has been behaving in the region towards Taiwan.

What would you be thinking or taking away from this?

What are some of the learnings for the US and how to deal with China on this issue?

Well, one lesson that I think the United States has learned over the last few years is that you don't want to show weakness to China.

We learned that really beginning in, the at the onset of the global financial crisis around 2008, 2009.

China then made it an assessment that the United States was beginning to decline.

And that assessment I think, led to some of the actions against Japan, particularly in 2012 when there was the purchase by the Japanese government of the three Senkaku Islands

and the Chinese started sending their coast guard ships into the 12 nautical mile territorial zone around the Senkaku.

And then the island building and militarization of the South China Sea.

And maybe even the more assertive actions, including some limited use of force on the Indian border.

I think China's calculus is that it is rising, they say the East is rising, the West is declining.

And so, this backdrop, I think, has fed into China's calculation, that it can get away with certain things against the West.

At the same time, I think US officials will be thinking about what actions we can take along with our allies, that will deter China, and what actions we might take that might provoke China, that we should avoid.

Because we do want the result to be deterrence.

We want to preserve peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.

We don't want to provoke a Chinese attack on Taiwan.

The US is just about to begin formal trade talks with Taiwan.

So how important are these talks in terms of the impact that they could potentially have on Taiwan security and the security in the region as well.

Well, the economic pillar in US policy toward Taiwan has been weak for some time.

Taiwan would like to have trade negotiations with the US.

In fact, they'd like a free trade agreement, they'd like a bilateral investment agreement.

They would like similar agreements with Japan and with other countries.

Because economics is inextricable from security, especially in the case of Taiwan.

But China has now made it clear to almost all countries that they would be consequences if they signed trading agreements with Taiwan.

So, this is very important to Taiwan.

It remains to be seen what kind of agreement will come out of these negotiations between the United States and Taiwan.

But I think it's important.

We should also note that Taiwan is a member of the World Trade Organization.

It has every right to sign trade agreements with other countries, other members of the WTO.

And in other circumstances, if China were not so concerned about US policy toward Taiwan for other reasons, I don't think that the trade negotiations by themselves would necessarily cause crisis.

But in this context of very high tensions caused by all of the US China competition, and Taiwan being part of that, and China's fears of what that might lead to.

I do think that it would probably provoke a very strong reaction from China.

What role can the US and its Asia-Pacific allies, such as Japan, play in helping bring peace and stability, not just to Taiwan, but to the region as well?

Well, I think that greater coordination and cooperation among US allies in the Indo Pacific and other parts of the world, on Taiwan, and other issues can help to make China more cautious.

Ultimately, Xi Jinping has to think about all of the domestic problems that he faces - is a serious slowdown in the economy, demographic challenges,

the Zero-COVID policy that he is implementing continues to cause economic repercussions in China.

And my guess is that his top priority is to preserve domestic stability.

And so, I believe that cooperation by like-minded countries can help ensure that Xi Jinping wakes up every day and says today is not the day

that I want to use force against Taiwan, because there could be strong reactions from other countries.

So, I think we need to signal more, the US and allies, and particularly Japan, that we would not sit by if China used force.

That we would act, that we are prepared to act.

And we should particularly think about what we could do in the economic realm and signal in advance that we are willing to take measures against China's economy, not just to cooperate militarily.

Bonnie Glaser, thank you so much for your time, really appreciate your insights.

Thank you so much.

China's geopolitical desires have implications for the United States and it's Asia-pacific allies.

As it continues to flex its military muscle - tensions in the region are growing.

But the US and its allies must walk a fine line between competition and cooperation with Beijing if they want to avoid military conflict and maintain economic prosperity.

I'm Del Irani, thanks for your company.

I'll see you next time!