Realities Behind Russian People's Support for Putin: Andrei Kolesnikov / Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Hello and welcome to DEEPER LOOK from New York.

I'm Del Irani, it's great to have your company.

So far, in our reporting of the Russian & Ukrainian conflict, we've brought you the news and developments that are being reported from inside Ukraine.

However, today we're going to take you inside Russia and give you a first-hand, on the ground perspective of how this conflict is being reported from within Moscow...

What are everyday Russians seeing, hearing, thinking and feeling about this conflict?

We know that President Putin's approval ratings are soaring - they're at 80% for the first time in about four years, according to Russia's leading independent polling agency.

So, what exactly is driving these high domestic approval ratings?

And how long will Russian citizens continue to support President Putin?

Joining me now to talk more about this is Andrei Kolesnikov.

He's a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

He's a journalist and author whose research focuses on Russian politics and shifts in Russian society.

He's based in Moscow, and he joins me now.

Welcome to the program, Andrei Kolesnikov. Great to have you with us.

Thank you so much. It's a pleasure.

Now, as I mentioned, you're actually joining us from inside Russia.

You previously worked as a senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center, which was recently closed at the direction of the Russian government.

First of all, let me ask you, how are you doing?

And what's the mood like right now in Russia, given what's happening in Ukraine?

For people like me, for the community of people from, let's say, Moscow's intelligence, it's an extremely hard time.

Everyone is in shock.

And everyone doesn't know what to do; whether to leave Russia or stay here.

And this is a question of safety, sometimes, the question of possible persecution, the question of possible labeling by different, unpleasant words like, like a foreign agent, et cetera, et cetera.

The mood in Russia is really contradictory.

Yes, the majority of Russians are supporting this war, and this is true.

The minority, something around a quarter of population, a quarter of respondents, to be correct.

These are people who do not, do not support this war.

Right now, people feel that this is a prolonged, procrastinated story.

And appetite is coming, could, during the meal.

And people become more, more and more furious, more and more fierce in their support of Putin.

So, Putin ignited some, some very archaic feelings, let's say in Russian people who are more or less modernized.

Andrei, give us a sense, I mean, how much do Russian citizens actually know about what is happening in Ukraine right now?

Are they aware of the huge sacrifices that have been made by the Russian forces, the Russian army themselves?

You know, people generally, they have all the opportunities to have alternative sources of information.

Yes, televisions, still is the main source of information for Russians, but the rate of penetration of the internet is quite high in Russia.

And according to one of the Levada Center's polls people say that a quarter of them can use VPN.

It means they can have all the possible information about the war.

And they have it, but they don't want to believe in it.

Or they don't want to analyze the situation.

They don't have their own opinions.

And in the situation of a hot war, it's better to join the mainstream.

It is better to join the state. So, again, they have this information but they don't want to accept the truth.

Because it's not so comfortable for them.

It destroys their inner harmony.

Do you see the support for Putin lasting in the longer term?

It's a good question, because we can't, the Kremlin can't support the high level of "rally around the flag" for a long time.

Even in a case of a peaceful territorial seizure, like Crimea.

It wasn't so long.

Yes, here is a so-called Crimean consensus among Russians since the year 2014.

But this is cold-consensus, not hot-one.

And the question is: whether Putin can maintain the same level of support for years; The answer is, no.

But for the moment, the curve is only growing right now.

And it's just like, let's say a champagne effect.

When you uncork champagne, there is a time for foaming, and you know, bubbles running, running up.

And we're still in this period of time, which we name it a "festival of special operation and permanent victories."

And I'm sure that Putin will be ready to demonstrate, to equate the great victory of 1945, celebrating it in May, with his current personal victory right now.

And the main discourse is that we are liberating the Ukrainian people, it was at the very beginning, from suppression of their western-oriented government.

This is the literal repetition of the words and logic of Stalin in 1939, when he invaded Finland, for instance.

When he invaded Western Ukraine and Western Belarus, the parts of disrupted Poland.

So, the history repeats in that sense.

And I must say the toolkit is really the same.

But people accept it, because this is a time of war, and this is my country, right or wrong.

So, I must be at the side of my country.

And we have seen some protests in Russia against the conflict in Ukraine.

Just give us an insight, how dangerous is it for a Russian person to go onto the street and protest against the Kremlin, against Putin?

What type of risks are they facing by taking such actions?

It's a big risk.

And it's a mistake to think that there is no anti-war movement in Russia.

It is here.

It is not underground.

I mean, these people are very active in social media.

Some media outlets are working quite good primarily from abroad, because it's impossible to be active here in full strength.

But there are some people who are working here, supporting their streams in YouTube, which is still not blocked, for some time.

They support - I must say that there are more media outlets than it was before the operation, paradoxical.

And people are following all these new programs primarily in YouTube broadcasting.

And this is also a kind of resistance to this regime, a very important one.

People can't be active because they have worked in places.

And, we are before a quite impressive unemployment.

When you are going to the streets, you will be persecuted according to the administrative law, or according to the criminal law as well.

And so, you will lose your working place.

And if you're a student, you will lose your place in the university, and your career would be crushed, totally.

And, I do want to dive a little bit deeper into a couple more issues, one of which is, of course, the harsh economic sanctions that the West has imposed on Russia.

According to the same survey we've been discussing by the Levada Center, around 29% of Russians say the harsh economic sanctions imposed by the West have seriously created problems for them and their family.

Can you give us a sense of what type of an impact are these sanctions having on daily life over there?

What is the source of the sanctions?

Is it Putin who's responsible?

For the majority of people, the sociological majority, it's again, the answer is clear: This is not Putin.

This is Biden, the West, Emmanuel Macron or somebody else who were imposing the sanctions, and we have to be inside this self-isolated, or, isolated by the external force fortress.

And we have to live much worse than it was before the sanctions.

It was a period when, after the annexation of Crimea, when people thought that the sanctions are really not against Putin but against Russia.

Then, they thought the sanctions are not so significant and they are against primarily the fat-cats, against oligarchs, Putin's administration, etc.

But now they again, think that the sanctions are not against Putin, they are against Russians.

And this feeling of isolation, this feeling of a besieged fortress gives rise to, let's say, Stockholm Syndrome, towards Putin, who is the commander of this fortress.

And people are trying to defend him, because they don't have any, they don't see any exit from this fortress.

And it's natural for them to be with the Commander-in-Chief.

So, for the moment, the sanctions are creating a consolidating effect.

Andrei, if President Putin were ever to lose the support of the Russian people, what would be the main cause of that?

Military failure historically was one of, was a cause for discontent and for changing, regime changing and no framework, political framework.

But Putin is trying to, even in any failure, he's trying to turn it into a victory.

And he does it quite good.

And I would say that he still has this capacity.

And it could be, I think, the reason for changing the regime in Russia.

Some economic problems could be very harmful for the regime.

Maybe in the future, in a year or two, when we will live in very archaic structurally economy, or economic system, with the downfall of real incomes again, with real unemployment, etc, etc.

Maybe it can ignite some bad feelings towards Putin.

But nevertheless, right now I can't see any real incentives to change, which can change the situation.

Do you think that, sort of, the younger part of society, the younger generation that is possibly, pro-change, and that maybe have this sort of more critical and disillusioned view of the authorities:

Do you think that they could potentially help bring in modernization or change in Russia?

Yes, they can, but in the future.

Because right now, they don't have such an opportunity.

Putin totally suppressed all the possible activity and signs of a civil society.

All those people are from a civil society, the activists.

All these people are working on the newly made working places in the new economy.

And the first reaction of this advanced part of the youth, was to leave the country.

A lot of specialists primarily leaves the country in a few first days of the special operation.

And it is a real problem for the government which feels it has to stop the flow of specialists in new professions, let's say.

Part of them are still here, part of them are graduating.

Part of them are afraid of possible draft into the Army.

So, in that sense, I mean, the West must be more open for Russian youth.

It's impossible to close the doors for them because, again, in 10 or 15 years, we must have a bunch of people who are ready to recreate to this country from the zero line.

Great stuff. Thank you so much for your time and insights, Andrei Kolesnikov.

Really appreciate you joining us on the show.

Thank you.

In the last couple of years, younger Russians have become the group most dissatisfied with the country's political system.

If President Putin intends on holding on to power in the longer term, it will be in his interest to get young people on his side,

because the youth are not only agents of change and progress, but they have the ability to shape the future of the country as well.

Join us next time as we continue our conversation with Mr. Kolesnikov on DEEPER LOOK from New York.

I'm Del Irani.

Thanks for your company.

I'll see you then.