US Midterm Elections: Voters' Decision and Global Impact

[VIDEO]
President Biden is stumping for Democrats ahead of the U.S. midterm elections.
[Joe Biden / U.S. President]
"This November, you have to choose to be a nation of hope, unity and optimism or a nation of fear, division and darkness."
However, amid historic inflation, the president's approval rating is hovering around 40%. The Democratic Party is facing significant headwinds. Former President Trump, on the other hand, is on the offensive.
[Donald Trump / Former U.S. President]
"You must vote Republican. You have to do it. We will make America great again."
As the debate over abortion access continues, so does criticism of Republicans calling for severe restrictions, or even bans on the procedure. Many races are too close to call. The outcome of the election could have a significant impact on U.S. foreign policy. Some fear that Biden's attempts to emphasize international cooperation will face new obstacles. Will the Democrats maintain control of Congress? Or will the Republicans prevail? How will the outcome of the election affect the rest of the world?

[Takao Minori]
Welcome to Global Agenda. In the U.S., midterm elections are held during the second year of a president's four-year term, this time on November 8th. President Biden himself isn't on the ballot, but whoever is elected will have a big impact on what he can, or cannot do, accomplish, during the remainder of his term. That means the midterms matter. The results will impact the lives of all Americans and people around the world whose futures depend on their country's relationship with the United States. Now, the makeup of both Houses of Congress hangs in the balance. Every seat in the House of Representatives is in play. President Biden's Democratic Party currently holds more seats than the Republicans. As for the Senate, a third of the seats are up for grabs. The chamber is now evenly divided, with Vice President Kamala Harris holding the tie breaking vote. So, the President's Party controls Congress by a very narrow margin. But will it be able to maintain that power? Or will the Republicans take one or both chambers, making it easier for them to block Biden's agenda? Our discussion today will look into the fate of the Biden administration, and how his rival in the last presidential race, Donald Trump, may determine the outcome this time. Joining me for this discussion are four guests. Two of them in the studio with us. First of all, let's go to Elaine Kamarck. Elaine is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, and an expert on electoral politics and government reform. Elaine, you have supported four presidential campaigns in the past, and nominating conventions for both the Republicans and the Democrats. What makes this year's midterm so important?

[Elaine Kamarck / Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution]
I'd say there's two things that make it so important. One is just how very close they are. The Senate has been a 50-50 Senate for the last two years. The House, the Democrats have a very small majority. And that means that just slight changes in the electorate could change the balance of power. I think the second reason is that we've had this very controversial president, Donald Trump, and he is playing big time in the midterms. And he clearly wants to make a comeback. And one of the things that myself and others who analyze politics will be looking at is, how successful was Trump, in these midterms. How successful were his endorsed candidates, and the candidates who trumpeted his style and his positions?

[TAKAO]
Now, let's go to Paul. Paul Sracic is a professor of political science at Youngstown State University in Ohio. You have analyzed public opinion and working-class voters for many years. What are the opinion polls telling us this time around?

[Paul A. Sracic / Professor, Youngstown State University in Ohio]
Well, the opinion polls are telling us that President Biden is not very popular. And his approval numbers are fairly low. They're consistent with midterms that we've seen in the past where the party in power, in this case would be the Democrats, did not do very well. So the poll numbers are not looking great. Also, the issues that seem to be important to Americans right now, the top issue in virtually every poll is inflation. And for the Democrats, I think they would rather that issue be abortion, and the Dobbs Decision. So the issues are not favoring the Democrats. Nor are the approval numbers for the President, which generally is reflected in how the votes go during the midterm.

[TAKAO]
Thank you, Paul. Let's go to our two online guests. Joining us from Washington is Jim Dornan. He's a strategist for the Republican Party with over 20 years of experience supporting candidates. He worked on former President Trump's 2015 exploratory Campaign Committee going into the 2016 presidential election. Jim, what part of both parties' strategies are you paying attention to?

[Jim Dornan / Republican strategist]
I would very much want to mimic what Paul just said. Inflation is a massive issue, although crime right now seems to be climbing in the polls as well. And I think the Democrats are very vulnerable on that issue. What intrigues me on the Democrat side is that how much the abortion decision will fire up Democratic base voters? Because that seems to be where most of their candidates are going right now. So, it's an equation that it's Trump, an abortion? Does it equal or is it greater than inflation and crime? And right now, I would have to give the advantage to the Republicans on that. Although there's enough time where Trump could do something that would very much anger the electorate and fire up the Democrats even more.

[TAKAO]
From Japan, we're happy to be joined by Fujiwara Kiichi. He is a professor at Chiba University and a visiting professor at the University of Tokyo. Kiichi, as an expert in foreign policy, could you explain to us why this election might be important for diplomatic relations between Japan and the U.S.?

[Fujiwara Kiichi / Professor, Chiba University]
Right now, the diplomatic relations between Washington and Tokyo is very, very solid and stable. Which was not the case during the Trump administration. Not because he's a Republican president, but because of his rather unique focus on America First, which actually paid little attention to alliance or coalition. So, the Biden administration, not because it's a Democratic administration, but because it's a more traditional U.S. administration, was a welcome sign for Tokyo. And Tokyo embraced this alliance. Now, it all depends on whether Washington has a strong government or not. The midterm election might lead to a weaker administration in the United States, and that's a concern for us. Especially when we're facing issues with China and Russia.

[TAKAO]
Our guests have already touched on some of the topics on voters' minds right now, but, as election day draws closer, candidates from both parties are rallying support for their handling, or their rival's mishandling, of issues voters are most concerned about, the economy, and access to abortion.

[VIDEO]
One of the issues that voters are most concerned about is inflation. The consumer price index has risen sharply, hitting 9.1% in June. That was the largest increase in about 40 years. Since then, the index has remained in the 8% range.
[MAN 1]
"Everything has gone up though the wages are the same. The income is the same. The cost of living has gone up."
President Biden and the Democrats passed a 430 billion dollar stimulus package, dubbed the "Inflation Reduction Act."
[BIDEN]
"After all, this bill cut cost for families help reduce inflation at the kitchen table."
Republican candidates have criticized the Biden Administration's massive spending, including funding to combat the COVID pandemic. They say that Biden has caused inflation to accelerate.
[JD Vance / Republican Candidate for Senate (Ohio)]
"He pretends he's a moderate, but votes 100% with Biden and Pelosi for trillions in spending that gave us record inflation, gas, groceries, housing, interest rates soaring."
Another major issue is abortion. Opinions are sharply divided among voters over whether it should be banned.
[WOMEN 1]
"My body, my choice! My body, my choice!"
[WOMEN 2]
"Abortion is violence! Abortion is violence."
61% of respondents to a recent survey believe that abortion should be legal in all or most cases. 38% of Republican voters agreed. Things heated up in June, when the Supreme Court overturned a previous ruling that abortion is a woman's right, and sent the issue back to the states. Former President Trump's appointment of three conservative justices led to this decision. Since then, these 12 states have enacted the country's most restrictive abortion policies. The legislatures of these states are under Republican control. In contrast, the Democrats are reaching out to voters who believe that abortion should be a woman's decision. They claim that they are the ones who can protect women's rights.
[Susie Lee / Democratic Candidate for House (Nevada)]
"Politicians should never come between women and our most personal health decisions."

[TAKAO]
Let's talk about inflation first. The Biden Administration has called the current inflation issue, "transitory." The Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates, trying to tame record high prices, but the numbers are not going down. Actually, well at least the way they would like to see them go down. How might this affect support for the Democrats? I'd like to go to Paul first.

[SRACIC]
You said that President Biden referred to it, at least early on as transitory. And that's one of the problems. Americans don't see it as being transitory. They don't know when it's going to end. Or where the limit is. And the most obvious thing that they're seeing are gas prices. That's almost like a big pro-GOP, pro-Republican advertisement every time they go to the pumps. Americans drive large cars, and it costs a lot of money to fill those tanks up. So there's a lot of evidence that they're seeing every day that pricing is out of control. And you buy gas in bulk, right? You don't just buy a gallon, you buy 10 gallons or 15 gallons. So it's a big charge that you're doing every time you go. So I think that that's what's really affecting people's views of the Democrats. They want something to change. And I think they're willing to go with the Republicans simply because they don't like the way things are going right now.

[TAKAO]
Elaine, is this situation really going strongly negative for the Democrats?

[KAMARCK]
This is one of the things we don't know. We know for a fact from prior elections, that inflation really matters, because as Paul indicated, it's something Americans see every day at the gas pump. What we don't know, is the impact of the abortion decision. And the reason is, we have not had abortion on the ballot, in the way it's on the ballot, ever in America. And abortion has what, again, inflation doesn't have. There's an intensity of feeling about abortion, especially among women. Now, there's always been a gender gap. For many decades, women tend to vote Democratic, men tend to vote Republican. But generally, they even each other out. What we don't know this time is whether or not many women are going to enter the electorate and vote primarily on this issue. And where we need to look is white suburban women. Because that group has been the swing vote in both 2018 and 2020. And that is likely to be the swing vote again. And so, there's a big question mark. One final point on this is, an indication that there's nervousness around this, is that many Republican candidates who took a real hard line on abortion, saying no rape, no incest, suddenly are pulling back. They're wiping clean their websites, and they're pulling back their statements.

[TAKAO]
Jim, would you agree that abortion is now the hot topic as compared to inflation?

[DORNAN]
I think among the Democratic base, absolutely. Elaine is 100% correct when she says that independent suburban white college educated women are going to be the deciding vote. But I also think that crime and inflation are going to be major factors when those women go to the polls as well. So, one way or the other, I think, among some segments, that Democratic base, absolutely abortion will be a key to turning out their vote. On the other hand is inflation, when these women go into the grocery stores and pick up a loaf of bread or a dozen eggs, and they're seeing that 14%, 15% increase in costs. Will that outweigh it too? And I think eventually in the polls, I think are reflecting this lately as well, that it is moving more towards the Republicans.

[TAKAO]
Kiichi, these are some of the same voters that we saw swaying the votes for the previous presidential election, of course, in 2016. And then, not knowing what was going to come out for 2020 too.

[FUJIWARA]
You're right there. But when it comes to abortion, there was a pretty strong trend of social conservatism arising in the United States. Challenging abortion, not preserving the right to abortion. The situation is quite a reverse right now. Abortion has become sort of a vested interest for a large number of U.S. population. So in this sense, conservatism are on the defense side right now. That's my impression. But having said that, I'm not really sure if any party can survive such a high inflation rate. So, that is one of the issues that we saw in the 1970s. But we haven't seen that so much after 1990s. So it's a combat of economic grievances and voting.

[TAKAO]
But then we're seeing young voters going to the polls as well. And the topic of abortion affecting a lot of young women. This will be an important issue for them, I have to say, but how will that affect the race do you think Elaine?

[KAMARCK]
First of all, first time voters are generally not in polls. So we don't know how many there are. But we have a little bit of evidence from voter registration in ten states, that first time voters tend to be women, they tend to be younger, and they tend to be voting Democratic. So there's a little bit of indication that the abortion issue is drawing out a new piece of the electorate. And of course, they're not in the polling. So that's why the Republicans are being a little bit cautious about this right now. And we also don't know if people are really talking about this to pollsters. I'm a little hesitant to put too much faith in those open-ended questions. People say, "Oh, inflation," because that's what's at the top of the list. And then finally, the thing about abortion that is not true of other issues, is that there is a real clear difference between the parties. If you're a Democrat, if you get Democrats elected, you're going to have legal abortion. If you get Republicans elected, you are not. And that is simply not the case on other issues, where people will tend, if you're a Democrat, you'll tend to say, "Oh, Joe Biden's doing all he can on inflation." And if you're a Republican, you tend to say, "Inflation is all Joe Biden's fault." So abortion is different. So that's why I say it's the big question mark, in this race.

[TAKAO]
It certainly has become, especially since June. Jim, the Republicans, well, there are some Republican candidates who want a national ban on abortion. And this issue, a national ban means a lot. Even for, obviously, people living in predominantly Democratic states. How is this really going to affect the Republican basis?

[DORNAN]
I think that the Republicans need to tread very carefully. I mean, even Donald Trump said after the decision, and it was by his three judges that made the difference, that this was not going to be good for the Republican's chances in 2022. Now that's dissipated a bit. People have very short memories these days. And it's not first and foremost on a lot of voters' minds. Still, it was during the summer, but it seems to be fading a bit as an issue, which is why you're seeing the Democrats advertise heavily on it. They want to keep it on people's minds. I think that even hardcore Republicans want to stay away from this issue, because they know that the country does not support a total ban on abortion. So, it will play heavily as everybody has agreed to on the panel. But again, is it going to be the number one driving issue to voters on November 8th? And I think the answer is going to be "No." It'll be secondary to a lot of the other issues that we've talked about as well.

[TAKAO]
Paul, what about the other issues in play, for example, immigration and crime like Jim has talked about? How will these sway voters?

[SRACIC]
Well, we have a saying that all politics is local. And I think these issues are going to play out differently in different places. In a place like Arizona, which is one of those Senate seats that we're really looking at, immigration is a very big issue. Not as large of an issue in the Upper Midwest, like Pennsylvania or Ohio. You may see particularly in Pennsylvania, Dr. Oz is trying to make crime an issue. And what's happening in cities like Philadelphia, is part of the issue. So, I think you're going to see these issues emphasized in different ways, or you are seeing that in different places and it'll have a different impact. But the other issues that we've been talking about, whether it's inflation, or abortion, are going to be national issues. They're talked about everywhere. I do think that this time inflation is going to be the big driver. Interestingly enough, I think, in the future, you're going to see abortion become a larger issue, particularly as you move forward and state legislature start passing laws. So, I think in future elections, we're going to be talking about abortion, and it might have a bigger impact that it is going to have on this midterm election.

[TAKAO]
Thank you. Well, we have touched on Donald Trump many times, as we've talked about the midterm elections. He is our next topic. President Donald Trump is not in office right now. He is no longer the president nor is he a candidate in this election. Why is he such a big player? He remains a constant presence.

[VIDEO]
Former President Trump is seeking to expand his influence within the Republican Party as he hints at another presidential run.
[VANCE]
"Aren't we having a good time? Isn't it great to have the president back in Ohio?"
[TRUMP]
"If you want to stop the destruction of America and really reinvigorate that good old fashioned American dream, you must vote Republican. You have to do it."
Trump has claimed that there was massive fraud in the last presidential election. According to the Washington Post, in the primaries he endorsed more than 180 Republican candidates for the House and the Senate who are sympathetic to his cause. More than 90% of them advanced to the general election.
[TRUMP]
"Blake Masters has my complete and total endorsement."
[Blake Masters / Republican Candidate for Senate (Arizona)]
"I'm Blake Masters, and I approve this message. Sir, thank you."
[TRUMP]
"Thank you."
Now, a number of the candidates Trump endorsed are changing their positions. Some have acknowledged that President Biden is the duly elected president.
[Ron Johnson / Republican Candidate for Senate (Wisconsin)]
"Yes, President Biden is now president of the United States."
Some candidates have even removed Trump's name and photos from the top page of their websites. Republican voters are divided on Trump's attempts to increase his influence within the party.
[State official]
"President Trump and I don't agree on everything, but I do think that he made some pretty significant steps forward for America, as our president."
[Republican supporter]
"I truly don't believe Trump is the Republican Party. I believe the Republicans are separate from Trump. I believe he's negative for our party."

[TAKAO]
How has Trump's endorsement benefited the Republican candidates? Paul, can you start us off?

[SRACIC]
He's batting almost 1,000. In the primaries, at least. I don't think JD Vance would have been the nominee in Ohio. I don't think Dr. Oz would have been the nominee in Pennsylvania. I don't think Blake Masters would have been the nominee in Arizona, maybe not Herschel Walker, in Georgia. So all these people basically owe their place on the ticket of the general election now or in the midterm election, to Donald Trump. That is a two-edged sword. If they all do well, and they might, simply because of the political environment regardless of their qualities as candidates, then, Trump can take credit for that and say, see all these people I endorsed, they became the nominees and they won. And if the Republicans take the Senate, he'll take credit for that. On the other hand, if they lose, in this what looks like a very good environment for Republicans, then Trump's going to have to take some of the blame for that because people are going to say, Republicans could have taken the Senate and they didn't, because you endorsed these candidates who were novices and not ready for primetime when it came to running for office. So it's a two-edged sword for Trump. We'll have to see how it turns out.

[TAKAO]
Why are all the candidates that Trump endorsed beginning to take Trump's name off of their campaigns?

[KAMARCK]
Some of these candidates, particularly in swing states, or in Democratic states, they managed to get the Republican nomination, but remember, the voters who voted in a Republican primary are a subset of the total electorate. Now they have to appeal to a broader electorate, and they're having trouble. So for instance, Maryland, which is a quite Democratic state, but has had a Republican governor for eight years, chose the Trump candidate as their nominee over the person that their Republican governor wanted.

[TAKAO]
Jim, there's the saying the midterm curse, that usually the party of the current president does not win the midterm elections. And so if you think of it that way, this midterm should be very easy for the Republicans to take. But how is Trump's influence over the party affecting this?

[DORNAN]
I agree this should have been a slam dunk, and it's not because of Trump's involvement in it. I mean, he's certainly very powerful in a Republican primary, but as Elaine said, that decreases significantly in a general election. His influence, in my opinion, is waning. He was, at one point, I think he had 80% approval or 90% approval among Republican voters. I think that's probably closer to 50 now. Recent polls have shown Ron DeSantis, beating him in Florida and other primary states. Between now and the end of the year, he could be indicted. He's got a number of court cases he's dealing with. I don't think that January 6th's insurrection helped him at all. He continues to deny the 2020 election results when it looks as though according to various sources that he knew very well that he lost. So he's got a lot of baggage right now. And he's completely toxic with the voters that we've been talking about for most of the program, and that's suburban, college educated white women. And so if he stays out between now and the end of the year, then I think the Republicans do well, but I never underestimate his ability to come in and mess things up.

[TAKAO]
Paul?

[SRACIC]
I think it's not so much that Republicans are afraid of Trump. They're afraid of Trump's voters. And we've been talking about suburban educated women. What the Republicans did in 2016 is they traded voters, essentially. They traded the wealthier, more educated suburban voters, for white working-class voters. And now that's a key part of the Republican Party. And Trump controls those voters if they become something of a base. So the fear for candidates is, how do we walk this line? How do we not lose those voters, and still maybe appeal to more traditional, you might say, Mitt Romney Republicans in the suburbs. So I think that's why you see the candidates refusing to completely distance themselves from Trump, but trying to be careful about associating themselves with his actual message.

[TAKAO]
Kiichi, I must say that, what Paul just talked about, the change of voters, for the Republicans, who supports the Republicans? Speaking to working class people, it seems Biden has taken that on. And he's been spending more time these days talking to workers because he knows that is a support base that he will need in many of these swing states, for example. But would a rift within the Republican Party put the Democrats at an advantage?

[FUJIWARA]
That's a good point. Actually, the working class was one of the key base support for the Democratic Party traditionally speaking. So blue collar workers, rushing to Republicans itself is something very new and something quite shocking to us. We were not really sure about these new voting patterns yet. I would rather be careful discussing about the voting preference of the working-class voters in the United States. It's much too early to reach a conclusion on that.

[TAKAO]
But do you think that gap within the Republican Party in terms of those who are with Trump and those who are not, is that an advantage for the Democratic Party?

[KAMARCK]
To a certain extent, Democrats need Donald Trump. They had a big success in 2018 as the country was really getting sick of Trump and all of his shambolic behavior. And of course, in 2020, he was on the ballot and he lost. He lost by 7 million votes. And given that the demographic trends are not in Trump's favor, young people are not particularly attracted to Donald Trump, older people are, so, you never want to be the party of old people, you want to be party of the younger people. So I think that if Trump is front and center, it helps the Democrats. And we just heard that there are many swing states, many key Senate races where they are not inviting Trump in to campaign. And interestingly enough, they're not inviting Biden in either. In other words, both parties are in the situation where their most famous person, the current president and the former president, they're saying please don't come campaign for us. Because there's a lot of polarization around the top.

[TAKAO]
Jim, could you also paint me a picture of the balance between the hot issues on voters' minds, such as inflation, or abortion, like these issues versus the split in the Republican Party. Which is going to weigh on the Republicans more as voters go to vote on November 8th?

[DORNAN]
I think Republicans smell blood right now. And they see an opportunity to take the House definitely, the Senate maybe. And that they will put aside their differences for the time being. I think they will come to a head in 2024 if Trump decides to run for the Republican nomination for president. But right now, I think there will be no gap between traditional conservatives or Trump supporters. I think you'll see them come together to vote against the Democrats. And, again, the split, I think will come later when Trump is more injected into the conversation.

[TAKAO]
Well, domestic issues may be the forefront for the American voters right now, but for the rest of the world, their choices will have a ripple effect on cooperation, trade, diplomacy, policies that President Biden has focused on since the beginning of his term.

[VIDEO]
Since taking office, President Biden has emphasized a shift away from the Trump Administration's "America First" approach to one that promotes international cooperation.
[BIDEN]
"America is back, diplomacy is back at the center of our foreign policy."
After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February, Biden sought cooperation with fellow NATO members. He has attempted to repair relations with NATO, which had deteriorated under former President Trump.
[BIDEN]
"NATO is strong, united, and the steps we're taking during this summit will further augment our collective strength."
On the other hand, the Biden administration has taken a hardline stance on China. The National Security Strategy, released in October, described China as the only country with both the intent and power to reshape the international order. The report states that in order to overcome competition from China, which is becoming more and more powerful in economic and military terms, it is necessary for the U.S. to cooperate with its allies and others. Biden has also advocated for IPEF, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for trade policy, in an effort to address concerns over China. Fourteen countries have signed on. In response, the Republican National Committee issued a document in September calling Biden's diplomacy a failure. It argued that his weak foreign policy has made America and the world less safe. It said that the Biden Administration's approach has emboldened China's actions.

[TAKAO]
Now, I want to be careful about what I say because we don't know the results of the midterm elections at this point. But if President Biden's influence over Congress weakens, will it make it harder for him to pursue his policy of global cooperation? Kiichi, what do you think?

[FUJIWARA]
In the United States, there has been instances where the government party and the parliament is different from the President. And that is called a divided government, I believe. It has happened quite often, in the Clinton Administration and the second term for the Bush Administration and so on. When that happens, it will become extremely difficult for the executives to pass legislations, especially concerning the budget. Now, whether this would have an effect on American foreign policy is actually a rather difficult thing to say at this moment, because when it comes to Russia, and China, frankly, both the Congress and the Senate, are strongly opposed to Russian invasion of Ukraine, and also share concern about the rise of China, and their aggressive policies. So this is most certainly not a bipartisanship that we saw in the Cold War days. But another thing is that, a number of new members of the Congress could be very America-centered in a rather strange or naive manner. Those are strong words and I'm aware of that. But they may try to be Trump-like disregarding coalitions, alliances, networks that the United States has been working on, and that will most certainly weaken U.S. power.

[TAKAO]
Elaine?

[KAMARCK]
I think I agree with everything he has said. And let me add that in a very, very divided country as we are where the parties are very, very different on a lot of issues, when it comes to foreign policy, there's actually some areas of consensus. So Russia and Ukraine are one. The vote for aid to Ukraine was 368 to 57. It was an overwhelming vote. In recent days, just the recent days, Kevin McCarthy, who might very well be the next Speaker of the House, has said that he doesn't know if next year if there's a recession, if we'll keep giving so much military aid to Ukraine. He was immediately batted down by Mitch McConnell and by former Vice President Mike Pence. So I view that more as McCarthy trying to get the isolationist vote in his caucus to be speaker, than as any real change in policy.

[TAKAO]
Paul?

[SRACIC]
I think what could really become interesting in the future, is what happens with trade, because you do have this Indo-Pacific Economic Framework going forward. I think there are complaints in Asia, that the U.S. has been too focused on guns and not focused on butter, not as focused enough on economic issues. And so you have this attempt by the Biden Administration, to sort of move on to trade a little bit. But the big problem is President Biden lacks trade promotion authority, that expired over a year ago. And without that, you can't talk about market access. And if you can't talk about market access, you really have no sanctions to enforce anything else that goes along in this economic framework. The really interesting thing is if Republicans took over, all Republicans, at least the traditional party, was pro-trade, right? I mean, in fact, if you look back in 2015, when President Obama was given Trade Promotion Authority, he barely got any Democratic votes, that was basically all Republicans. But that was the old Republican Party. We've been talking about sort of the changes, the base is changing maybe in the Republican Party, to voters who don't like trade. So it's almost as if there's no one out there to advocate for this anymore. And again, without that, you really can't move forward with any trade. And this is going to harm us, I think, in our relations with Asia.

[TAKAO]
Jim, can you give us the inside picture of the Republican Party and these foreign policies?

[DORNAN]
Well, this is what those of us who are traditional conservatives are concerned most about the party. It's that there is a new segment of it that are, frankly, xenophobic isolationists. And it concerns me because first of all, Biden has done the right thing in Ukraine and it worries me when I hear Kevin McCarthy say things that he has said. And if you remember, Biden was first very, very Asian-centric on his foreign policy until Russia forced his hand to go back to Europe. Biden has done a very good job in foreign policy. And frankly, that's always been his expertise since he got into the Senate, 30-some years ago. But it concerns me that a lot of Republicans just want to roll up our borders and are trying to exist on our own, when this world just can't exist like that anymore. I mean, this is back in the 40s, where we had a big isolationist strain in the country, as well. But with technology, that's just not going to happen. So we do need to stay engaged, the party does need to get more involved with foreign policy, although I will say this is that it will have very little effect on a midterm election.

[TAKAO]
When it comes to China, for example, we have just learned that Xi Jinping will take a third term. And, policies toward China are shifting right now, especially because of the war in Ukraine and their influence in the Indo-Pacific region, not just in terms of guns, but also butter. What do we think we will see from the United States going forward in perhaps what could be a split Congress?

[FUJIWARA]
What we can say, is the foreign policy is not the key agenda, in this midterm election, quite obviously. But on the other hand, seeing from the outside, whether the United States will have a strong government or not matters greatly. If you take a look from the Chinese perspective, think how the Chinese Communist Party would see the result of a midterm election leading to a divided government, a weaker executive. They would see this as part of a long decline of the United States. Now, when it comes to China, I think it's fair to say that China is both an opportunity and also a threat to most Asian nations, but the threat element is becoming much more important at this moment. Of course, you can't think of Asian economy, as Southeast Asian, Korean, Japanese economy without China, but at the same time, the rule of the game is being set by the Chinese, even in business matters, most certainly in geopolitics. So there's a growing alarm toward China, and the non-Chinese Asian nations, we're observing this midterm election with a certain anxiety that this could lead to a weaker United States, which the Chinese would somehow accept as an opportunity. So it's not only Russia. I mean, frankly, I dare say that in Asia it's more about China than Russia.

[TAKAO]
I'd like to ask all of our guests now, as we wrap up the show. Who do you think will win?

[FUJIWARA]
The House, the Republicans would win. The Senate is, we don't really know, at this moment. The only consolation for us would be, the results would be better compared to politics in the United Kingdom, or Italy, as we see it. It would be relatively more stable than U.K. or Italy. When it comes to foreign policy, I agree that and in fact, I have said that there is a strong support for Ukraine. And there's really no significant shifts on that, that we can see. On China as well. But I would rather be careful because there are several extremist and xenophobic candidates who are not really interested in foreign policy in general, and have a strong mistrust against any action of the government.

[SRACIC]
I think the question about the House is easy. I think it's highly probable that Republicans will take the House of Representatives. They only need five more seats. And in this kind of political environment, it almost would be shocking if they didn't in that case, the Senate, I think we all know, is going to be really close. And so what that means, even if only one House is taken, is that as Professor Kiichi has said, the Biden agenda is dead. In the future for the next two years, not much is going to happen, I think, legislatively in Washington D.C. And very quickly, we're going to switch over to the 2024 election. A year from now, that's what we're going to be talking about. So that'll put everything on hold as we move forward. So there are some unifying issues. There is a split on Ukraine in the Republican Party, I think that could grow over the next year. And you could see more evidence of it if they take the House and the Senate. But on China, there is unity. I think that is the one issue in the United States that Democrats and Republicans agree upon. So any actions with Taiwan or something, I think that this split government is not really going to affect that.

[TAKAO]
What about you, Jim?

[DORNAN]
I agree with Paul that Republicans definitely take the House. The Senate, I think is up for grabs, although polling trends would indicate the Republicans probably have a slight advantage right now. I'd like to say that the one unifying thing would be the budget that they have to pass, a federal budget, but there are already Republicans saying that they're going to shut down the government over the debt limit increase sometime next year. So, it's not going to be a fun two years, that's for sure. But I think that, it'll shake out, people will get their things together. And I think that Paul is also right when he says the focus is going to be strictly on 2024. And I think that's all we have to look forward to, with this government and this Congress for the next two years.

[TAKAO]
Thank you, Jim. What about you, Elaine?

[KAMARCK]
Obviously, I agree with my colleagues here. The Republicans will take the House. The question is, what is their margin in the House? Because back in May, Republicans were thinking they were going to pick up 50 to 60 seats in the House. I think that that may be smaller now. I think the pickups might be more in the traditional 20 to 30 range. And given that there are some issues on which there are Republican voters who vote with the Democrats, it may not be a total disaster in terms of accomplishing things if the margins are small. I think the Senate is, as my colleagues said, it's just completely up in the air. We don't know. And it depends, I think, on this mystery question, which is, how salient is the abortion issue? We know that inflation isn't salient, we don't know how salient the abortion issue is. And I think that's going to matter.

[TAKAO]
Well, thank you all for your valuable insight today. Thank you. Dealing with the aftermath of one of the worst pandemics in history, in addition to a drawn-out war in Ukraine has not been easy for the Biden Administration. And for years, we've also witnessed a deepening divide in U.S. society escalated by the actions of extremists. The results of the midterm elections will paint the true picture of what's on American's minds right now. But whatever the outcome, it will be up to all members of Congress, no matter which party they belong to, to show the rest of the world that all 50 states can find ways to stand united. Thank you very much for joining us on this edition of Global Agenda.