I think Kishida's move places importance on stability more than anything else. All four new Cabinet members have had Cabinet positions before. A government official told me the only reason they were chosen is that they can be effective in their roles immediately.
This seems to especially apply to Hayashi Yoshimasa, who will take the key job of Chief Cabinet Secretary. He has already served as both foreign minister and defense minister, and he is number two in the Kishida faction.
The prime minister appears to want Hayashi as a dependable ally while he faces what is being described as the biggest crisis of his administration. But one Liberal Democratic Party lawmaker said Kishida's team apparently first offered the Chief Cabinet Secretary job to a different lawmaker — who turned it down. That suggests some LDP members are worried about the Kishida administration's future.
The Diet session closed on Wednesday, so prosecutors are likely to pursue a full-scale investigation of the LDP's activities. If they indict someone influential, the party and the administration will face even stronger headwinds.
Kishida and his party both have their lowest approval ratings in 10 years. One view on that came from the leader of Komeito, the LDP's junior coalition partner. He said the situation is too severe to dissolve the Lower House.
At the same time, an LDP lawmaker told me that very few members think a general election will be held with Kishida as prime minister.
Moreover, it seems likely that the Abe faction will step up its criticism of Kishida after its members were pushed out of the Cabinet in the reshuffle. So I have to say, the Kishida administration is facing an extremely hard road.
