She explains that he has the support of more than 90% of Republicans, allowing him to focus on key battleground states such as Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
How the president fares in TV debates will also be important, Yokoe says. She believes moderate supporters “may be waiting for Trump to show his strength over Biden.”
This year’s widespread social unrest over racial injustice could play into the president’s hands, she adds. More violence could validate his message of law and order, and resonate with people who are worried about security.