The Japanese government estimates that the country will be short of 570,000 care workers to support the elderly population in fiscal 2040, when the first group of second-generation baby boomers reaches the age of 65.
The Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry released the estimate on Friday. Officials assess the number of care workers needed to support the elderly based on the plans formulated by each prefecture every three years.
The ministry puts the number of care workers needed in fiscal 2026 at 2.4 million, and in fiscal 2040 at 2.72 million.
Only 2.15 million care workers were supporting the elderly as of fiscal 2022. To meet the required number, an additional 32,000 care workers will be needed every year on average through 2040.
The government has been taking measures to boost the number of care workers by improving working conditions and facilitating the hiring of foreign nationals. But those measures have not been sufficient to fill the gap and sustain services under the nation's long-term nursing care insurance program.