WMO sees 80% chance of global temperature exceeding 1.5 degree threshold

The World Meteorological Organization says there is an 80 percent chance within five years that the average global temperature will "temporarily" exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level.

The UN body on Wednesday published the results of an analysis of the state of the global climate and forecasts for between 2024 and 2028 based on data from weather authorities around the world.

The report predicts that the global mean near-surface temperature for each of the five years will be between 1.1 to 1.9 degrees higher than the average over the years from 1850 to 1900.

It says there is an 86 percent chance that at least one year will set a new temperature record, beating that of 2023, when the figure was 1.45 degrees above the pre-industrial baseline.

Parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement aim to limit an increase in the average temperature to 1.5 degrees.

The WMO says short-term warming does not equate to a permanent breach of the Paris Agreement goal. But it says the chance of at least one of the next five years surpassing 1.5 degrees has risen steadily since 2015.

WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett said, "Behind these statistics lies the bleak reality that we are way off track to meet the goals set in the Paris Agreement."